Summary

Amid forecasts of economic doom and gloom following Brexit, there’s a light of hope being held up by some UK politicians: new bilateral trade deals, ones with countries that EU membership would not have allowed for.

The United States is one potential suitor for a bilateral trade agreement, as is Canada. So too is China, a particularly interesting possibility given the supposed ‘golden age’ of Sino-British ties we now find ourselves in. A UK-China trade deal would be an interesting development, as it would blaze a trail in East-West trade and face little competition from potential competitors such as the United States and the European Union, both of which are nowhere near a deal.

But is it realistic to think that a UK-China trade deal could actually happen?

Impact

The idea of a UK-China free trade deal is born out of, and possibly doomed by, political considerations within the United Kingdom.

Forces pushing for the deal are an urge on the Conservatives part to spin Brexit in a positive economic way, and a desire to perpetuate the ‘golden era’ in UK-China ties (it remains to be seen just how much this era was predicated on the UK serving as an entryway into the European market, a role it can no longer maintain).

But there are economic forces pushing against a deal, mainly the fact that China just isn’t that important of a market at the moment in terms of purchasing British goods right now. China is the UK’s sixth-largest export market, accounting for just 3.6% of the country’s exports. Though many of the United Kingdom’s top exports (cars, medical supplies, computer equipment) are subject to substantial tariffs on the Chinese side.