FORECAST
President Obama’s recent speech in Japan stands out as a classic example of rhetoric diverging from reality. It spoke of an American re-engagement with Asia, one in which Japan will serve as the central pivot. The reality on the ground, however, is that U.S. military bases in Japan are in jeopardy of being folded.
In both word and deed, President Obama used last week’s Japan summit to demonstrate American humility. Much of the trip seemed aimed at proving America was not ‘bullying’ Japan, and that both countries stand as equal partners within the U.S.-Japan alliance. President Obama’s deep bow to Japan’s Emperor Akihito, while politically sensational in certain corners of the American domestic political audience, counts as one such effort. His re-affirmation of the linkage between the North Korean abduction issue and any future normalization of diplomatic relations with Pyongyang counts as another concession meant to demonstrate that Japan’s voice carries weight within the alliance.
Unfortunately, President Obama’s efforts may be a case of too little too late. It is no secret that U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ previous attempts to resolve the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) impasse before President Obama’s arrival have had the unintended effect of agitating the Hatayama-led DPJ government. Secretary Gates’ shrugging off of Japanese reservations and his suggestion that Tokyo should “move on” and implement the 2006 agreement did nothing to assuage Japanese concerns that it is being treated as a junior partner in the alliance.
The DPJ government has enough domestic political capital to insist that the SOFA be revised and a timetable be established for the removal of U.S. forces on Okinawa. The perception of U.S. intransigence and bullying in Japan strengthens the DPJ’s hand in regards to such matters.
A series of bilateral talks on the SOFA will commence this week. In a telling omen of a possible hard DPJ negotiating stance, President Hatayama dismissed the notion that the talks would center around the implementation of the previously agreed-upon 2006 SOFA, stating, “[the] bilateral task force will not be swayed by the 2006 pact… If we had an answer, we don’t need to hold talks.”
The possibility of a Japanese government folding U.S. military bases in Okinawa a decade ago was slight to say the least. Now that the international climate is undergoing a re-alignment under the weight of American decline, the rules of the game are starting to change.
The burden of Japan’s wartime history has carried with it a semi-pariah status in East Asia, impeding regional integration and contributing to an undue Japanese reliance on Washington for security. There are several indications that the Hatayama government wants to cast off this burden and rehabilitate Japan’s relationship with its neighbors. One such example is the DPJ’s enthusiastic support of an East Asian Community Project, a regional organization that notably precludes American participation.
To forego U.S. military deployments on Japanese soil would be a decisive step towards re-orienting Japanese foreign policy towards Asia and one that would certainly pay dividends in Sino-Japanese relations. However, it should be kept in mind that while the removal of U.S. troops from Okinawa would damage the U.S.-Japanese alliance, it would not necessarily doom it. Chinese military power is still a looming threat for Tokyo, and it is likely that any money saved by not having to pay upkeep on U.S. military bases would fast be sucked into the booming naval arms race in Asia.
Looking towards next week’s talks, expect a hard Japanese negotiating stance. The Hatayama government will be seeking at the very least for an American agreement to pay for a greater share of the move away from Futenma, and at most a timetable for total withdrawal from Okinawa.
SUMMARY OF EVENTS: November 9 – 16, 2009
WORLD
Gold prices hit a record above 1,100 dollars on Monday with the dollar weakening after a pledge by G20 countries to keep economic recovery pumped up with easy money.
The U.S. dollar fell against major currencies on Friday as reports of Eurozone economic growth boosted investors’ risk appetite.
NORTH AMERICA
United States
Top executives at Blackwater Worldwide authorized secret payments of about $1 million to Iraqi officials that were intended to silence their criticism and buy their support after a September 2007 episode in which Blackwater security guards fatally shot 17 Iraqi civilians in Baghdad, according to former company officials.
U.S. intelligence agencies were aware months ago that Army Major Nidal Malik Hasan was attempting to make contact with people associated with al Qaeda, two American officials briefed on classified material in the case told ABC News.
The White House denied Monday President Barack Obama had come to a decision on sending U.S. reinforcements to Afghanistan amid mounting speculation he had made up his mind on a troop buildup.
The United States accused Iran in the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday of illicit arms deliveries to Lebanese guerrillas, endorsing charges by Israel after it seized a ship in the Mediterranean last week.
President Barack Obama does not plan to accept any of the Afghanistan war options presented by his national security team, pushing instead for revisions to clarify how and when U.S. troops would turn over responsibility to the Afghan government, a senior administration official said Wednesday.
U.S. federal prosecutors said Thursday they were moving to seize four mosques and a 36-story New York skyscraper from a non-profit Muslim group suspected of having ties to the Iranian government.
A survey of U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan shows declining morale among army units and that troops facing three or more combat tours have higher rates of mental health and marital problems, the U.S. Army said Friday.
President Barack Obama declared Saturday that an era of American disengagement in the globe’s fastest-growing region is over and warned that the U.S. and its Asian partners “will not be cowed” by North Korea’s continued defiance over its nuclear weapons and other provocations.
SOUTH AMERICA
Colombia
Colombia said on Sunday it will appeal to the U.N. Security Council and the OAS after Hugo Chavez, the fiery leftist president of neighboring Venezuela, ordered his army to prepare for war in order to assure peace.
Nine Colombian soldiers were killed when their post was attacked by Marxist FARC guerrillas in a southwestern part of the country used as a cocaine smuggling corridor by the rebels, officials said on Tuesday.
Venezuela
A local Venezuelan governor has accused President Hugo Chavez’s administration of supporting Colombian leftist guerrillas’ campaign against the Bogota government.
WESTERN EUROPE
Britain
Europe may send 5,000 more soldiers to Afghanistan, Britain’s prime minister said Friday — affirming support for the NATO mission as the Obama administration nears a decision on increasing American troop levels.
France
Former French Interior Minister Charles Pasqua, convicted last month for his role in an arms scandal in the 1990s, accused former President Jacques Chirac on Thursday of letting illegal weapons sales to Angola go ahead.
EASTERN EUROPE
Russia
A senior Russian military official said Wednesday Moscow is still reviewing the possible delivery of the S-300 air defense systems to Iran.
MIDDLE EAST
Iraq
Disturbing graphic allegations of sexual and physical abuse of Iraqi civilians by British soldiers are among 33 new torture cases being investigated by the Ministry of Defence (MoD).
Iran
Three U.S. citizens arrested in Iran for illegally entering the country from Iraq have been charged with espionage, the Iranian news agency IRNA reported on Monday.
Iran said on Wednesday it is ready to cooperate with the government of Yemen to restore security there, even as a military cooperation agreement was reached between Yemen and the US aimed at shoring up defences in Yemen.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has created a powerful new intelligence organization to try to quell any further public unrest following June’s disputed election, an exiled Iranian opposition group said on Thursday.
Lebanon
Lebanon’s prime minister-designate Saad Hariri has formed a new 30-member unity government, ending five months of deadlock since the general election.
Palestinian Territories
The Palestinian president on Wednesday resisted U.S. pressure for a resumption of peace talks with Israel, repeating his demand for a complete halt to West Bank settlement building before negotiations.
The Palestinian Central Election Commission (CEC) on Thursday recommended delaying general elections scheduled for January 24, paving the way for Abbas to remain in power indefinitely.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia said on Tuesday it will keep up air strikes against Yemeni rebels until they pull back from its borders, as Iran warned against regional intervention in the conflict.
Saudi Arabia is enforcing a 10km deep buffer zone inside Yemen in an attempt to keep members of a Yemeni rebel group away from its southwestern border, a Saudi government adviser has said.
At least 240 villages have been evacuated in southwestern Saudi Arabia due to fighting between Saudi forces and Yemeni rebels along the border, the UN children’s fund (Unicef) has said.
EAST ASIA
China
China sent its clearest signal yet that it was ready to allow yuan appreciation after an 18-month hiatus, saying on Wednesday it would consider major currencies, not just the dollar, in guiding the exchange rate.
Japan
U.S. President Barack Obama and Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama are still at odds on a U.S. marine base on Okinawa.
North Korea
North Korea has warned South Korea that it will face “costly consequences” over a naval clash along the two countries’ disputed sea border earlier this week.
South Korea
A North Korean patrol boat was set ablaze after exchanging fire with South Korea’s navy on Tuesday, Seoul officials said, as cross-border tensions rose a week before a scheduled US presidential visit.
SOUTH ASIA
Afghanistan
In a pair of raids on Sunday, Afghan police officers and American soldiers discovered a half-million pounds of ammonium nitrate, a fertilizer that is used in the overwhelming majority of homemade bombs here. About 2,000 bomb-making devices like timers and triggers were also found, and 15 Afghans were detained.
The British Government has suggested that the government of Hamid Karzai should talk to the Taliban leadership, the so-called “Quetta Shura”, in an attempt to bring insurgents into the political process.
Nepal
Tens of thousands of Maoist protesters have blockaded Nepal’s government headquarters for a second day Friday.
Pakistan
Pakistani Taliban militants vowed to fight a tough, protracted guerrilla war against the army on Tuesday as a suicide car-bomber killed up to 20 people in a northwestern town, police said.
A suicide car-bomber destroyed an office of Pakistan’s main intelligence agency in the northwestern city of Peshawar on Friday, killing at least eight people and wounding over 30, witnesses and officials said.
Thailand
Emboldened by a rousing welcome in Cambodia, fugitive former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra is rallying supporters from just over the border, upping the ante in Thailand’s political crisis.
AFRICA
Liberia
Former Liberian president Charles Taylor claimed on Tuesday he was indicted for war crimes as part of a US “regime change” plan to gain control of West African oil reserves, in a typically defiant performance.
Zimbabwe
Zimbabwean Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai’s ally Roy Bennett went on trial accused of terrorism on Monday in a case that has stoked tensions in the unity government of Tsvangirai and President Robert Mugabe’s ZANU-PF.
