Summary

The bombing of a Turkish military convoy in rebel-held Idlib province this week sheds some light on the frayed and contentious geopolitics underpinning the final phase of the Syrian civil war. Simply put, Turkey-Russian cooperation in the Syrian theater always appeared stronger than it actually was. Now that Turkey-aligned proxies are squarely in the crosshairs of pro-regime forces, it has become much harder to smooth over the disparate interests of various regional players. And as this week’s airstrikes and subsequent war-of-words clearly illustrate – this is a conflict that could quickly spin out of control, and to disastrous effect.