With Donald Trump return to the White House, Europeans are deeply worried about how he might reshape global politics. His first term brought radical changes to US foreign policy, marked by isolationist tendencies, withdrawal from multilateral agreements, and an aggressive prioritization of national interests. Should Trump 2.0 follow a similar trajectory, it would undoubtedly pose a serious threat to the global order and Europe, which is already grappling with the Ukraine war. His policies would significantly harm Europe, a region deeply dependent on multilateral cooperation to ensure stability and progress.
Trump’s lenient stance toward Russia could severely undermine European security and the rules-based international order. While debates continue within Trump’s inner circle, several indicators suggest what his approach might entail. His long-standing admiration for Vladimir Putin, his claims of being able to end the Ukraine war within days, and the perspectives of key advisors all point toward the possibility of the United States reducing or even halting military support for Ukraine. Such a shift would risk solidifying Russia’s territorial gains, and a hasty peace agreement could lend legitimacy to Moscow’s aggression. Beyond threatening European security, these actions would set a dangerous precedent by eroding fundamental principles of the United Nations Charter, including the prohibition of military aggression and the respect for national sovereignty.
Trump’s second presidency could also have devastating consequences for Europe’s climate agenda. During his first term, Trump denied the reality of climate change and obstructed international efforts to combat global warming. The Heritage Foundation’s “Project 2025,” a policy agenda for a potential second term, explicitly seeks to end the “war on oil and gas” and dismantle climate-related funding. Such actions would deliver a heavy blow to the European Union’s ambitions to lead global climate action through its Green Deal initiative. Without the support of Washington, achieving global climate goals and creating a new framework for climate financing would become much more difficult. This divergence in priorities could further strain transatlantic relations. While it would still be possible to address global challenges such as climate change, poverty, and governance reform, the absence of a reliable US partner would make such efforts far more challenging.
Given these potential developments, it is clear that Europe must prepare for a new geopolitical reality. EU member states can no longer rely on a return to the traditional transatlantic partnership. Instead, Europe must adopt a more confident and independent approach on the global stage, maintaining its leadership role in critical areas such as security, climate action, development policy, and multilateral cooperation.
While Trump 2.0 would undoubtedly pose a threat to Europe, revisionist powers such as China and Russia—and some actors in the Global South—may view his presidency as a historic opportunity. A partial withdrawal of the United States from the global order would allow these countries to escape Western-dominated power structures and play a greater role in shaping a multipolar world order less reliant on Western values and norms. From a Western perspective, this scenario poses the risk of deeper alignments between these nations and powers like China or Russia, further weakening Europe’s influence within the global system and undermining the rules-based international order.
Another challenge lies in the potential shift of US development policy toward a more direct focus on geopolitical competition with China. If this occurs, Europe would likely face mounting pressure to fill the financial gaps left by the United States, particularly in funding mechanisms within the UN’s development system. At the same time, European nations would likely be pushed to increase their defense spending, especially as Trump renews demands for NATO members to assume greater responsibility for their security.
Trump’s first term demonstrated his clear disdain for international cooperation. The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and other multilateral organizations was a stark indicator of his readiness to pursue anti-globalization policies. In his second term, Trump would likely double down on these tendencies, adopting an even harsher approach toward America’s rivals and adversaries. Based on his track record, he could once again challenge institutions such as the United Nations, NATO, the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), even at the expense of America’s credibility as a global leader.
In sum, the implications of a second Trump presidency would ripple (or has rippled) across the world, reshaping alliances, intensifying geopolitical rivalries, and challenging the frameworks that have underpinned global stability. For Europe, these developments underscore the urgent need to adopt a proactive and self-reliant approach in navigating an increasingly uncertain international landscape.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author(s) alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Geopoliticalmonitor.com.
