The return of Donald Trump to the White House has marked a departure from the conventional trajectory of US foreign policy. His administration’s approach to Russia signals a recalibration of priorities, reflecting an underlying strategy aimed at reshaping global alignments in Washington’s favor. Rather than maintaining the confrontational stance of previous administrations, Trump appears to favor a more conciliatory approach toward Moscow, a shift largely dictated by the imperative of countering China’s rise. This shift, however, raises critical questions about its broader consequences, particularly for the transatlantic alliance and global stability.
Russia and China: The New Strategic Equation
For decades, US foreign policy has been characterized by a dual containment approach toward both Russia and China. However, Trump’s return to power suggests a shift in focus, prioritizing China as the primary geopolitical challenger while seeking to ease tensions with Russia. This change underscores a belief that continued antagonism toward Moscow only serves to push Russia further into China’s strategic orbit. The assumption behind this approach is that an entrenched Sino-Russian partnership presents the most formidable challenge to US hegemony. If the two powers deepen their military, economic, and diplomatic coordination, Washington faces a significantly more complex threat environment. By offering diplomatic and economic incentives to Russia, the Trump administration aims to weaken this partnership and prevent Beijing from leveraging Moscow’s resources in a future confrontation with the United States.
The urgency of countering China stems from its growing economic and military power. China has surpassed the United States as the world’s largest trading nation and advanced significantly in AI, semiconductor manufacturing, and quantum computing. The modernization of the People’s Liberation Army and its growing naval power challenge US strategic superiority in the Indo-Pacific. Meanwhile, Beijing’s global outreach through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative has significantly expanded its influence across Africa, Latin America, and even Europe. Against this backdrop, Trump’s foreign policy team views Russia as a secondary concern. While Moscow remains a geopolitical competitor, its ambitions are seen as more regionally focused, making engagement with Russia a strategic move to free up resources for the broader confrontation with China.
A Diplomatic Strategy to Divide Russia and China
Trump’s approach recalls President Richard Nixon’s opening to China in 1972, where Washington exploited the Sino-Soviet split to contain Moscow. However, this time, the roles are reversed, as the United States seeks to engage Russia in an effort to weaken China’s strategic position. The administration envisions diplomatic engagement, the lifting of select sanctions, and potential de-escalation of tensions over Ukraine as mechanisms to bring Russia back into a more balanced relationship with the West.
The assumption is that, with the right incentives, Moscow might be willing to moderate its ties with Beijing. Yet, this assumption is flawed. Unlike during the Cold War, when ideological rifts separated China and the Soviet Union, today’s Russia-China partnership is built on shared opposition to Western dominance. Both countries benefit from economic cooperation, joint military exercises, and diplomatic coordination in multilateral institutions such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Given these realities, the likelihood of Russia abandoning its close ties with China in exchange for uncertain US concessions remains low.
Implications for NATO and European Security
While the logic behind Trump’s approach is clear, it carries significant strategic risks. By deprioritizing support for Ukraine and easing pressure on Moscow, Trump may embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin. A perceived retreat by the United States could encourage Russia to expand its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe through hybrid warfare or direct military action. The administration’s skepticism toward NATO, combined with its reluctance to maintain military aid commitments to Ukraine, risks fracturing the transatlantic alliance.
European nations, uncertain of Washington’s reliability, may seek alternative security arrangements, undermining the cohesion that has underpinned Western stability since World War II. Additionally, by engaging in direct negotiations with Moscow without meaningful European participation, Washington risks sidelining key allies such as Germany, France, and Poland. This could push European nations toward a more independent foreign policy stance, reducing Washington’s ability to coordinate a unified response to global security challenges.
Concrete Policy Shifts and Their Consequences
Trump’s realignment is already manifesting in concrete policy decisions. His administration has signaled a shift away from previous commitments to European security, urging NATO members to increase their defense spending while casting doubt on the United States’ commitment to Article 5. He has also moved to curtail military aid to Ukraine, undermining Kyiv’s ability to resist Russian advances.
While these measures are intended to secure Moscow’s neutrality in a US-China confrontation, they carry long-term risks that could outweigh their short-term gains. If Russia interprets these moves as signs of Western weakness, it may choose to exploit them rather than reciprocate with genuine geopolitical realignment.
A More Strategic Alternative: Balancing Engagement and Deterrence
If the objective is to prevent an entrenched Sino-Russian alliance while maintaining US credibility, an alternative approach is needed. Rather than offering unconditional concessions to Moscow, Washington should pursue a strategy of selective engagement coupled with reinforced deterrence. Diplomatic engagement with Russia should be contingent on verifiable actions, such as de-escalation in Ukraine and a commitment to cease aggressive military posturing in Eastern Europe.
European allies should be encouraged to increase their defense contributions, but US commitments to NATO must remain firm. Enhanced joint military exercises and forward deployments in Eastern Europe would deter Russian aggression while ensuring NATO’s resilience. Economic relief should only be granted in exchange for concrete behavioral changes from Moscow, using sanctions as a bargaining tool rather than a premature concession. Washington should explore areas of limited cooperation with Moscow, such as arms control and Arctic governance, without jeopardizing broader security commitments.
Conclusion: Long-Term Strategic Considerations
Trump’s foreign policy shift toward Russia represents an ambitious effort to reshape global alignments, but its long-term ramifications remain uncertain. While a Russia-China split could, in theory, provide the United States with strategic flexibility, the execution of this policy raises concerns about its sustainability and unintended consequences. Weakening NATO at a time of growing Russian assertiveness could compromise transatlantic security and embolden Moscow to test Western resolve. Moreover, Russia’s incentives to break from China remain limited, making it unclear whether Washington’s overtures will result in meaningful realignment or simply encourage further geopolitical adventurism.
A more sustainable strategy would balance engagement with deterrence, ensuring that diplomatic initiatives with Russia do not come at the expense of broader US strategic interests. History has shown that unchecked concessions rarely produce lasting stability, and the challenge for US policymakers lies in navigating this complex realignment without sacrificing critical security commitments. The broader question remains: Can the United States successfully realign its global strategy while maintaining stability, or will this shift inadvertently accelerate the rise of revisionist powers?
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