What is missing from this rosey analysis is that there will be repercussions from the USA outreach to Iran and throwing allies under the bus. Others will – out of neccessity have to fill the void left in the wake of Obama’s surrender of USA influence in the Mideast to Iran.
I am almost 60 years old and this is – without a doubt – the most distubing US foriegn policy development since Jimmy Carter (which not surprisingly also included the Iranians.
]]>Iran is aware that an all-out confrontation with the U.S. and its allies, would be a total disaster for them, but also an unpredictable, near-total catastrophe for its rivals
That is one of the cards up the sleeve for Iran.
By accepting limits to its military nuclear development,
Iran stands to gain economic prosperity and world prestige
That is why both Israel and Saudi Arabia are so unhappy with this new deal. That is Iran’s second card up the sleeve.
By opening up to Iran, the U.S. hopes to curb its emergence as a great power in the region. This objective is attainable, but only for a brief period, let us say, between now and the next presidential election in the U.S.
The Iranians are using to their full advantage the recent economic troubles in the U.S., and the ill-advised wars
it chose to start. They also benefit from the rise of China as a world power, the return of Russia to international prominence, and the hardline taken by of some anti U.S.
nations in South America.
The all-or-nothing stance of key allies of the U.S., Israel and Saudi Arabia, is grounded in their conviction that peace with Iran means defeat for them in the long-run. They do not fear all-out war because they seem over-confident about the West and their own military and economic superiority. They may well be right in this assumption, but they stand to lose much less than the Western powers if they prove to be wrong. There is a strong element of uncertainty on the part of the U.S. and other Western nations not felt by Israel and Saudi Arabia. They seem to fear that the West and Iran could well live on as rival powers within their own spheres of influence. They sense defenestration as the two most important regional allies of the West in the region. Therefore, war is their only option.
Under the prevailing circumstances, either war or peace with Iran, for the U.S. is a lose-lose situation. This is the unwanted effect created by the uncertainty factor mentioned above.
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