On Tuesday, February 18, 2025, Moscow and Washington’s top diplomats sat around the table to discuss a “peace” plan for Ukraine, without Ukraine at the table. The key figures in these talks were Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State; Mike Waltz, National Security Advisor to President Donald Trump; and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East. Representing Russia were Sergey Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs; Yuri Ushakov, the Kremlin’s chief foreign policy advisor; and Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund.

The 4.5-hour discussion did not seem to produce any concrete results. The primary topics included the restoration of diplomatic relations between Moscow and Washington, the formation of a high-level negotiation team to advance peace talks, economic and geopolitical cooperation, and security guarantees and territorial considerations.

Yet, out of everything discussed, one topic stood out: elections in Ukraine. Soon after the meeting ended, talk of Ukrainian elections began circulating. Donald Trump claimed that President Zelensky’s popularity had plummeted to 4% and suggested that Ukraine must hold elections as part of a peace deal.

The sudden emergence of the elections narrative after the talks is no coincidence. If Zelensky refuses the proposed peace deal, Washington and Moscow may try to push him out of the discussion altogether, declaring him ineligible to negotiate, and instead install a leader more willing to accept a settlement on their terms.

Something big might be unfolding.

As of May 2024, Zelensky’s presidential term officially ended. However, due to martial law imposed because of the war, Ukraine’s constitution does not allow elections, which makes sense. With part of the population on the front lines, many in exile, and the majority living in fear, holding elections under these conditions would be highly destabilizing.

But that might be the whole point. If Zelensky rejects the US-Russia peace deal, Washington and Moscow could use this situation to declare him an illegitimate leader who no longer represents Ukraine.

The decision to exclude Ukrainian officials from the first serious talks since the invasion was not an accident. It was a signal. If Kyiv refuses to accept the deal, this is how it will look: Washington and Moscow deciding Ukraine’s future without Ukraine at the table.

Speaking to reporters at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, the US president placed the blame for the war on Ukraine, arguing that President Volodymyr Zelensky could have prevented the conflict by conceding parts of Ukrainian territory to Russia.

“I think I have the power to end this war, and I think it’s going very well. But today I heard, ‘Oh we weren’t invited.’ Well you’ve been there for three years, you should have ended it three years (ago). You should have never started it. You could have made a deal,” he said.

Let’s say Zelensky rejects the Trump-Putin peace deal. What happens next?

The likely next step: push for elections. Moscow and Washington could argue that Ukraine needs a ‘democratically elected’ leader to sign a peace deal. Moscow would likely agree to a ceasefire not for peace, but to justify holding elections.

But what if Zelensky wins reelection? If elections are pushed, it won’t be just about the vote. It will be about who is positioned to win. Moscow and Washington are likely to back figures critical of Zelensky and open to negotiations. Here are the key figures who could benefit from a forced election:

Oleksiy Arestovych – Former Zelensky advisor turned critic. With military intelligence experience, media influence, and growing support, he could be a Kremlin-Washington-friendly candidate if elections are forced.

Dmytro Razumkov – Former Speaker of Parliament, ousted after clashing with Zelensky over executive overreach. His moderate stance and political influence make him a potential compromise candidate for both Washington and Moscow.

Viktor Medvedchuk – As a Kremlin ally with a history of pro-Russian activities, Medvedchuk remains politically toxic in Ukraine. His past treason charges make him an unlikely option, as any attempt to install him would face intense public and Western resistance.

If elections happen, Kyiv must expect heavy external influence. Russia could manipulate results in occupied regions through voter suppression or staged referendums, while Trump might pressure US allies to push Ukraine toward holding elections under unfavorable conditions. The goal? A new president, carefully positioned to legitimize a deal that recognizes Russian-occupied territories and moves Ukraine away from NATO aspirations.

This isn’t just speculation. Trump has already called for elections in Ukraine. The fact that Kyiv was excluded from the Riyadh talks signals that major decisions about Ukraine’s future are being made without Ukraine at the table.

If Zelensky refuses the proposed deal, expect internal pressure as well. Western-backed figures could start calling for his resignation. Protests? Political shake-ups? Ukraine’s real battle might not just be on the frontlines. It could be unfolding in Kyiv itself.

This also puts Europe in a difficult position. Will they stand by Zelensky against a Trump-Putin push for new leadership? If the EU resists, it could trigger a major geopolitical rift between Europe and the U.S.

Bottom line: The Riyadh talks weren’t really about Ukraine’s peace. They may have been about Ukraine’s leadership. Watch how fast the “Ukraine needs elections” narrative gains momentum. This isn’t about democracy. It’s about control.

Keep a close eye on this. If elections are forced, Zelensky might soon be fighting for his presidency as much as Ukraine is fighting for its sovereignty.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author(s) alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Geopoliticalmonitor.com.