On October 10, 2024, the leaders of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia solidified their regional alliance, with a focus on countering Ethiopia’s influence in the Horn of Africa. The trilateral summit marked a significant development in the geopolitics of Eastern Africa, particularly in light of Ethiopia’s increasingly assertive actions in the region, such as its recent naval port deal with Somaliland in January 2024. The establishment of what appears to be an anti-Ethiopian alliance will have critical implications for the region’s security landscape, where the three nations are seeking to leverage their combined diplomatic and military efforts to curb Ethiopia’s ambitions.
These ambitions center around an interest in increasing its naval capabilities and, critically, Ethiopia gaining direct access to the Red Sea – a prospect that has long been a source of concern for Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea, all of which have tended to view Ethiopia’s economic and military developments through a national security lens influenced by their own circumstance.
For Egypt, the overriding bilateral concern is a water conflict centered on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a mega-project that has an almost existential significance for Cairo in that it risks disrupting the Nile River’s flow and negatively impacting Egyptian agriculture and freshwater resources.
Eritrea’s grievances stem from historically strained relations that reach back to the 1950s when it first launched a struggle to gain independence from Ethiopia (incidentally, with early support from Egypt). And even after finally achieving independence in 1993, another round of fighting broke out between 1998 and 2000. Eritrea has since maintained a cautious stance as Ethiopia’s political and military influence in the region continued to increase over the past few years. Given Eritrea’s proximity to the Red Sea and Ethiopia’s interest in developing naval capabilities and expanding its sea access, particularly through the Somaliland deal, these concerns have only grown of late, with one manifestation of the tension being the recent suspension of Ethiopian airline flights to Eritrea.
Somalia’s involvement in the newly formalized alliance adds another layer of geopolitical complexity. Historically, Somalia has had a tumultuous relationship with Ethiopia, one marked by territorial disputes and proxy wars. Yet in recent years, Somalia has been seeking to improve relations with all of its neighbors, and Ethiopia is no exception. These efforts have evidently been derailed however by Ethiopia’s growing engagement with Somaliland, an area that Mogadishu still claims as part of its territory. The turning point came in January 2024, when the signing of an Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal called Somalia’s claims of sovereignty into question. The deal had the immediate effect of pushing Mogadishu closer to Egypt and Eritrea as a counterbalance against Ethiopia. There is also a clear military dimension to this renewed cooperation, particularly with regard to Cairo. Egypt and Somalia have already signed a security agreement and a military protocol after Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud visited Cairo in August to hold official talks with his counterpart, President Abdel-Fatah el-Sissi. Following the signing ceremony for the new agreement, President el-Sissi affirmed Egypt’s commitment to preserving Somalia’s territorial integrity and rejected any intervention in its internal affairs.
Formalizing an Alliance: Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia
The trilateral summit involving Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia marked a significant step in the formalization of their collective strategy, solidifying a joint approach to counter Ethiopia’s interests. The establishment of a trilateral joint committee comprising the foreign ministers of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia was one of the main outcomes of the summit. This committee will oversee and promote strategic cooperation on the military, diplomatic, and economic fronts, and its establishment is a clear indication that the three states seek to formalize a more structured capacity for collective action. More specifically, this will involve diplomatic efforts to push back against the Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal and providing backing to Cairo’s position on the GERD. Longer-term, the alliance will seek to strengthen Somalia’s military capabilities, which have been severely eroded by years of internal conflict and instability.
Egypt’s Motives and Interests
For Egypt, the primary motivation behind the alliance is clear: to shore up its diplomatic and military backing in Cairo’s water conflict with Addis Ababa. This comes after more than a decade of diplomatic negotiations where both states have failed to reach a diplomatic resolution. Throughout, Cairo has consistently voiced concerns about the GERD’s potential to significantly reduce Egypt’s share of Nile waters, which in turn risks negatively impacting the country’s agricultural industry and restricting access to drinking water. Against the backdrop of these diplomatic efforts, tensions continue to rise, and Egypt is now actively forging regional alliances to compel Ethiopia to adopt a more favorable position on regional water-sharing agreements.
The naval port deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland is another major concern, as Ethiopian access to the Red Sea would challenge Egypt’s interests in the region. As a country that heavily relies on the Suez Canal for economic leverage (the canal generated some $9.4 billion in fees between 2022-23), Egypt is keen to prevent any rival power from gaining control over key maritime routes traversing the Red Sea. Moreover, it’s worth noting that the Suez Canal is already being negatively impacted by ongoing attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen on commercial vessels passing through Bab Al Mandab, leading to a reported decrease in Suez Canal traffic by up to 66%.
Eritrea’s Motives and Interests
Eritrea’s participation in the alliance stems from a combination of past grievances and strategic interests. Despite a formal peace agreement in 2018, the relationship between Eritrea and Ethiopia continues to be unstable. In particular, the prospect of an Ethiopian port in Somaliland has further raised concerns. Eritrea, located on the western coast of the Red Sea, considers the Red Sea as essential to its national security. Any expansion of Ethiopian influence in the region poses a direct threat to Eritrea’s control over key maritime routes and diminishes its strategic leverage. Moreover, Eritrea views its alliance with Egypt and Somalia as a strategic opportunity to enhance its own military and diplomatic standing in the region. By aligning with Egypt—a major regional power with significant diplomatic, intelligence, and military resources—Eritrea can strengthen its position vis-à-vis Ethiopia and other regional actors. The alliance offers Eritrea a chance to take a more active role in regional security matters, particularly those related to the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.
Somalia’s Motives and Interests
Somalia’s decision to join the Egypt-Eritrea alliance reflects an increasing apprehension over Ethiopia’s role in Somaliland. Somalia has long claimed Somaliland as part of its territory, even after the territory declared independence in 1991. The Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal in particular severely undermines Somalia’s sovereignty claims. Furthermore, for Somalia, the alliance with Egypt and Eritrea offers a clear opportunity to bolster its military capabilities and strengthen its position in regional diplomacy. Prolonged conflict has severely weakened Somalia’s military, and the country continues to confront significant internal security challenges, notably involving extremist groups. By aligning with Egypt, which has a robust military infrastructure, Somalia can access much-needed military support and training. Additionally, the alliance offers Somalia a means to raise its issues regarding Somaliland internationally, utilizing the diplomatic influence of Egypt and Eritrea to strengthen its stance.
Shifting Geopolitics in the Horn of Africa
The establishment of the Egypt-Eritrea-Somalia alliance marks a crucial change in the geopolitics of the Horn of Africa. As Ethiopia continues to assert itself as a regional power, its neighbors are seeking to counterbalance Addis Ababa through diplomatic and military means. The alliance between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia will have far-reaching implications for the region’s political and security landscape, especially as the three states continue to institutionalize their cooperation through the newly established trilateral joint committee.
