The past two weeks have been upending for anyone tuned into Thai politics, a span that has seen the Kingdom’s most popular party dissolved and popular politician banned, a sitting prime minister removed from office and the selection of yet another Shinawatra as prime minister. One thing is for certain, politics in the Kingdom of Thailand are moving at whiplash speed.
Recent Court Cases
On August 7, the Constitutional Court of Thailand ruled that the progressive and winning party of the 2023 general election, the Move Forward Party was guilty of seeking to undermine the democratic regime with King as Head of State. As such the court ruled that the Move Forward Party was to be dissolved and 11 of its executives, including the Kingdom’s most popular politician Pita Limjaroenrat, were to be banned from active politics for a period of 10 years. The case against Move Forward centered on the party’s political platform and campaigning of reforming Article 112 of the Criminal Code, better known as the lèse-majesté law. The court ruled that the party’s campaign of 112 reform constituted a security threat to the state by bringing the monarchy into politics and taking 112 out of the security section of the criminal code posed a threat to the democratic regime. The Move Forward Party quickly regrouped and formed the People’s Party within three days of dissolution. The party’s new leader, Mr. Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, regrouped the party and all remaining 143 MPs under the new party banner.
A week later the same court ruled that PM Srettha Thavisin was guilty of serious ethical violations under Article 160 (4 and (5) of the junta constitution, which forbids anyone guilty of corruption or criminal offences from holding ministerial positions. The case centered on the attempted appointment of Pichit Chuenban as minister to the prime minister’s office during the formation of the Puea Thai government late last year. Pichit Chuenban was found guilty of contempt of court in trying to bride court officials in a land case against Thaksin’s wife in 2008. The court not only found PM Srettha guilty of serious ethical breaches, but ordered his removal as prime minister immediately, along with the entire Cabinet.
The New Prime Minister
In the political vacuum that ensued with the dissolution of Move Forward, the establishment of the People’s Party with all Move Forward’s remaining MPs, and the removal of Puea Thai PM Srettha, rumors circulated that Bhumjaitai party leader Anutin Charnvirakul or Puea Thai’s Chaikasem Kasetsiri would be the next prime minister.
However, after a meeting of party bosses at Thaksin’s home on the evening of August 15, the bombshell dropped: Puea Thai would nominate party leader 37-year-old Paetongtarn Shinawatra for the prime minister post. The Thai House of Representatives voted today, August 16, to make Paetongtarn Shinawatra Thailand’s 31st prime minister, the youngest to ever hold the position.
This is a massive gamble by Thaksin. By putting his daughter into the PM spot, Thaksin is signaling an all-in gambit by the once powerful former PM. Since forming the government nearly a year ago, Puea Thai has seen its fortunes stagnate and recede. A year into the Puea Thai-led government, its flagship policies have not been implemented, the economy is stagnate, and Puea Thai’s popularity is sagging.
Why Another Shinawatra?
Thaksin’s selection of his daughter can be seen as him stepping closer to the reigns of power and decision-making. With Thaksin’s court cases coming to a fast conclusion, he will be able to make decisions openly and consolidate control of PT firmly within the confines of trusted family members. By choosing his daughter for prime minister, Thaksin is stepping fully back into the political arena and putting the Thaksin brand on full display.
The much-contested policies of the digital wallet, casinos, and land bridge will be hallmarks of the coming years. Thaksin is banking on an all-or-nothing strategy by putting his name, reputation, and brand of Thai Rak Thai/Puea Thai directly into the policy limelight. If the policies pan out and economic growth ensues, PT may reverse its fortunes. If they do not and the economy continues to stagnate, PT will lose further ground to the People’s Party and Bhumjaitai.
Given the relative stagnation of policy under PM Srettha, who was hesitant to fully engage with the policies for fear of running afoul of the law, Thaksin and Paetongtarn now have a clear pathway to implement their platform. If Srettha continued as PM, Puea Thai would have likely suffered a death by a thousand cuts. Now Thaksin has chosen to take direct control of politics and the economy.
This is also a dangerous decision considering the two previous Shinawatras were ousted in military coups. However, the environment at present is not conducive to another military intervention. The same cannot be said of the ‘independent agencies’ such as the National Counter Corruption Commission, Election Commission, and Constitutional Court, which were packed and conformed to fight against Thaksin. It was only with the grace of luck that Move Forward did so well in the 2023 general election that Thaksin was allowed back to the Kingdom. He now risks putting the target on the back of his daughter with this latest move.
Whether Thaksin’s all-in gamble will work remains to be seen. However, one can read this latest move as an all-or-nothing gamble by the 74-year-old politician. Left with little choice, the Shinawatras are going all out in this latest political move. If PT’s policies work Thaksin and Puea Thai will survive and thrive, if they do not Puea Thai will fade quickly and be overtaken by other political players on Thailand’s right and left in the next election.
William J. Jones is an Assistant Professor of International Relations at Mahidol University International College, Thailand. His primary areas of interests are ASEAN, human rights in Southeast Asia and contemporary Thai politics. He can be contacted at [email protected] or on LinkedIn.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author(s) alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Geopoliticalmonitor.com.
