Core Insights:
- Pelosi visit just latest in a series of events altering the longstanding diplomatic status quo surrounding cross-Strait relations.
- The visit will enrage Beijing, but its response is likely to be more symbolic than kinetic.
- An invasion of Taiwan remains highly unlikely in the short-term.
From the moment that Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan was leaked, the current US-China tensions were essentially pre-ordained. For the US Speaker of the House – a lifelong thorn in the side of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) – a reversal in the face of CCP threats would send the wrong signal to regional allies, many of whom have begun to question the strength of Washington’s security commitments going forward. For Beijing, such a visit could not be allowed to have the optics of ‘business as usual’ given the growing perception among the Chinese population that China is now a superpower demanding commiserate levels of global respect, speak nothing of the domestic political sensitivities involved in the lead-up to 20th Party Congress later this year.
