Ukraine War Background
The current phase Ukraine war is the latest manifestation of a Russo-Ukrainian geopolitical rivalry that spans the entirety of the modern era and reaches even further into the past.
During the Soviet era, Ukraine was a crucial part of the Soviet Union, second only to Russia in terms of population, industrial output, and military significance. Its decision to break away from the Soviet Union in 1991 was a critical blow to the collapsing superpower. Since gaining independence, Ukraine has sought to establish itself as a sovereign state, balancing its foreign relations between the West and Russia. However, deep internal divisions between the pro-Western, Ukrainian-speaking population in the west and the Russian-speaking communities in the east have complicated these efforts.
Ukraine’s longstanding geopolitical balancing act came to a head in 2014, when a domestic political crisis triggered the first stage of the Ukraine war, involving Russia’s annexation of Crimea and active support of separatist movements in the Donbas region. The annexation of Crimea was the first instance of a European state seizing territory from another since World War II, leading to the most significant fighting in Europe since the Balkan Wars of the 1990s. Arguably, this is when global geopolitics began to shift toward renewed great power competition and away from post-Cold War US preeminence.
The second phase of the Ukraine war erupted when Russia launched a full-scale invasion in February 2022, marking a significant escalation in a conflict. The invasion represented another turning point for European security and was widely viewed by defense and foreign policy experts as a strategic miscalculation by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Now over two years into the fighting, prospects for a diplomatic resolution remain bleak, with fears of further escalation, including the potential use of nuclear weapons by Russia. The Ukraine war has also accelerated Kyiv’s efforts to integrate with Western political institutions, such as the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is deeply rooted in historical, cultural, and geopolitical factors. Ukraine holds significant importance for Russia, not only due to historical ties but also owing to its strategic location and fertile land. For Putin, Ukraine’s drift toward Western institutions like NATO and the EU threaten Russia’s influence and national security. The Ukraine war is viewed by many as an attempt by Russia to reassert its status as a great power and challenge the post-Cold War security order in Europe. Despite initial setbacks on the battlefield and mounting costs for the Russian economy, Moscow continues to pursue its objectives in Ukraine, which continues as one of the world’s most destructive conflicts.
