Indonesia’s tradition of non-alignment is being tested by a sweeping new agreement with the United States. The plight is not exceptional and is increasingly familiar among middle powers looking to balance prosperity, security, and autonomy in an era of great power competition.

A new antidumping duty targeting Russian palladium seeks to insulate US domestic capacity of a critical mineral that plays an outsize role in vehicle supply chains. Yet questions continue to swirl around the long-term health of the US palladium market.

For China, the question is clear: Why risk confrontation to save Caracas or Tehran when its primary rival in Washington is already bleeding military resources and diplomatic capital?

It’s true that export controls have curbed the development of China’s domestic AI stack. But they have conversely also made it a rational inevitability, which is already evident in China’s ‘good enough’ AI stack.

This week we examine the potential impact of new protests on US-Iran negotiations, fallout from the US Supreme Court striking down President Trump’s landmark tariff policy, new rare earth magnet facilities in India and the United States, and the potential for faster-than-expected rate hikes in Japan.

The US-India interim framework on secondary tariffs is less the epilogue to a short trade dispute than a trial by fire for tariff conditionality as a sanctions enforcement instrument.

New tariff authority tied to Iran-linked trade and renewed US maritime guidance near the Strait of Hormuz show a familiar pattern: Washington is turning “national security” tools into daily friction for commerce. These costs are easy to trigger and harder to unwind.

The foreign policy of the second Trump administration may appear chaotic, but it is constrained by three dictates: cheap oil, cheap debt, and cheap interventions.

This week we examine show elections in Myanmar, the re-deployment of a US Carrier Strike Group to the Middle East, and new US tariff threats against Canada.

The defining risk for Southeast Asia in 2026 is not simply “geopolitics.” It is policy volatility, and it is arriving in tandem with an older, less glamorous constraint: energy infrastructure.

This week we examine how a rapidly evolving situation in Greenland could remake trans-Atlantic relations, details of the long-awaited US-Taiwan tariff deal, a shock government offensive that changed the map of Syria, and Canada’s efforts to thaw out its relations with China.

This week we examine a resumption of hostilities between Thailand and Cambodia, interdictions at sea by the US military in the Caribbean and Indian Ocean, a tentative recovery in Canadian exports, and Ukraine dropping its longstanding aspiration for NATO membership to move peace talks ahead.

As states aggressively design “Plan B” channels for funding, standards, and dispute resolution that do not presume US leadership or even US participation, China is swiftly filling the vacuum.

Trump's tariff diplomacy seeks to undermine and remake the postwar trade order. The irony is that, while intended to maintain US dominance, the strategy may accelerate the redistribution of economic power to emerging economies, leading to the transition to a multipolar world.

Escalating frictions with Washington risk undermining India’s efforts to expand its arms exports.

Far from achieving their narrow goal of ending the prosecution of former president Jair Bolsonaro, the Brazil Trump tariffs have backfired on numerous fronts: strengthening Lula politically, accelerating Brazil's pivot toward China, and catalyzing regional integration initiatives that exclude US participation.

The ongoing rift in US-India relations has shed light on some longstanding contradictions in the relationship, and while the two sides may still yet find common ground, the road to resolution will surely be a rocky one.

This week we examine some concerning job numbers in the US economy, a new round of Trump tariffs, and new evidence of a hardening line on Russia from President Trump.

The 15% rate imposed by the recent EU-US trade deal will fundamentally restructure trade, energy, and defense flows across the Atlantic, advancing US economic and strategic priorities and putting the EU under substantial adjustment pressure going forward.

The recent US-Vietnam trade pact illustrates how Hanoi is becoming a strategic pivot point in a much larger geopolitical game.