Myanmar Civil War – Geopolitical Monitor

Implications of the Fall of Myanmar’s Western Command

Antonio Graceffo — Thu, 02 Jan 2025 14:17:18 +0000

The fall of the Tatmadaw’s Western Command marks a collapse of state control across Rakhine State, but governance challenges loom for the victorious Arakan Army.

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Myanmar Civil War Casts Shadow over China’s CMEC Corridor

Antonio Graceffo — Fri, 13 Dec 2024 12:20:43 +0000

The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) was supposed to provide economic growth while alleviating one of China’s overriding strategic concerns, but the project has never truly gotten off the ground.

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China’s Wagner? Beijing Establishes Private Security Company in Myanmar

Antonio Graceffo — Thu, 28 Nov 2024 17:13:16 +0000

Beijing is taking a more active role in the Myanmar civil war by deploying a private security company to protect Chinese investments in the country.

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Myanmar Civil War: New Season, New Breakthroughs?

Antonio Graceffo — Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:03:04 +0000

After a year of territorial gains, resistance fighters are nearing the second-largest city of Mandalay. Yet changing weather could breathe new life into the junta’s efforts to turn the tide in the Myanmar civil war.

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Census: An Unlikely Tool of Repression in Myanmar Civil War

Antonio Graceffo — Thu, 17 Oct 2024 12:39:09 +0000

Impractical as it may seem, the ruling junta in Myanmar is rolling out a census and planning to hold elections amid a raging civil war. But the effort may be hiding ulterior, more sinister motives.

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From Ukraine to Myanmar, Drone Warfare Marks a Paradigm Shift

Antonio Graceffo — Wed, 11 Sep 2024 12:28:16 +0000

The Myanmar civil war and Ukraine war are serving as laboratories for the testing and development of drone warfare.

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Battle for Myawaddy Reflects Urban Shift in Myanmar Civil War

Antonio Graceffo — Mon, 26 Aug 2024 12:30:31 +0000

The battle for Myawaddy reflects a shift in the Myanmar civil war. With the countryside now largely held by opposition forces, junta-held towns and cities are now being swept up in the fighting.

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Myanmar Civil War: A Conflict Without End

Antonio Graceffo — Mon, 12 Aug 2024 13:29:14 +0000

Many date the start of the Myanmar civil war to the 2021 coup that removed Aung San Suu Kyi from power. However, this is just the latest phase of one of the longest running conflicts in the world.

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Tatmadaw’s Existential Fight Dragging Down Myanmar’s Economy

Antonio Graceffo — Mon, 24 Jun 2024 12:10:56 +0000

A national economy in free-fall won’t impact the strategic calculations of a ruling junta which views the Myanmar civil war as an existential conflict.

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Myanmar Civil War Spillover Effects Impacting India and Bangladesh

Antonio Graceffo — Mon, 25 Mar 2024 12:46:31 +0000

Refugee inflows from the Myanmar war are inflaming longstanding ethnic conflicts in India and Bangladesh.

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