Israel’s Iran Strike: A New Power Dynamic in the Middle East
With Israeli strikes now landing inside Iran, Tehran faces a dilemma in managing a conflict that has historically been fought via indirect means.
Iran Nuclear Program Nears “Breakout”
![cc US Department of State, Wikicommons, A view of the Blue Salon at the Palais Coburg hotel in Vienna, Austria, the 19th-century, Neoclassical former palace for Prince Ferdinand of Saxe-Coburg, where most of the bilateral meetings between the United States, other P5+1 countries, European Union, and Iran took place, as well as one-on-one meetings between Secretary Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. Secretary Kerry sat on the left side of the table, third chair from the bottom, and Minister Zarif sat directly across on the right side of the table. [State Department photo/ Public Domain]](https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/U.S._Nuclear_Negotiations_With_Iran-copy-768x369.jpg "cc US Department of State, Wikicommons, A view of the Blue Salon at the Palais Coburg hotel in Vienna, Austria, the 19th-century, Neoclassical former palace for Prince Ferdinand of Saxe-Coburg, where most of the bilateral meetings between the United States, other P5+1 countries, European Union, and Iran took place, as well as one-on-one meetings between Secretary Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. Secretary Kerry sat on the left side of the table, third chair from the bottom, and Minister Zarif sat directly across on the right side of the table. [State Department photo/ Public Domain]")
The post-JCPOA Iran nuclear program is edging toward the ‘breakout’ point, leading to some difficult choices for the next US administration.
Why Iran Chose to Provoke Pakistan
Domestic issues are likely behind a recent strike on Pakistan, but the swift and in-kind reaction undoubtedly caught Tehran by surprise.
Iran Bends under the Weight of US ‘Maximum Pressure’
New nationwide protests are heaping pressure on the Rouhani regime; but all routes to a political solution remain blocked off.
Backgrounder: The U.S. Maximum Pressure Campaign toward Iran
Maximum pressure is working – just not in the way that US officials had hoped it would.
Is Iran’s Rouhani Administration on Borrowed Time?
The usually opaque factional infighting of Iranian politics has spilled out into the open, highlighting a Rouhani administration that’s teetering on the brink.
FLASH: Iran Oil Industry Feels Bite of US Sanctions
Less than a year out from President Trump’s May 2018 announcement that the United States is withdrawing from the JCPOA, Iran’s oil industry is struggling more than many anticipated.
Backgrounder: Iran’s Military Strategy in the Persian Gulf
Iran’s military strategy calls for asymmetric warfare against a much more powerful foe in the United States, with a focus on increasing the military and economic costs of any potential conflict.
Global Forecast (11-05-2018)
Ebola spreading in DRC, Bank of Japan mulling an end to Abenomics, and Iran finds itself under US sanctions once again.
Iran Sanctions: The Triumph of Short-Term Thinking
Iran sanctions are disruptive for both energy markets and US strategy toward the Middle East.