For Sudan, January 9th will bring with it either a sense of closure after decades of civil war or a new wave of chaos in Africa’s largest state.

In the wake of last week’s highly symbolic though hollowed-out election in Sudan, the question on everyone’s mind is no longer whether or not the south will secede in 2011, but how bloody their secession will be.

The Obama administration has rebooted bilateral relations with yet another international pariah, in effect choosing engagement over the morally sound though geopolitically risky course of self-imposed isolation.

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf’s decision to resign rather than face impeachment by parliament will have both domestic and international implications: a political power vacuum for a fractious Pakistan, and the loss of a once indispensible ally in the “war on terror” for the US.

Despite its accusations of “genocide” in Darfur and an outbreak of violence in oil-rich Abyei, the US is negotiating with Sudan to normalize diplomatic relations. 

China is selling small arms to Sudan, which are used in the Darfur conflict to maim and kill civilians, in exchange for access to Sudanese oil. The violence in Darfur will continue as long as China continues its oil-for-weapons trade with Sudan.