Arctic Geopolitics News & Analysis

South Korean Sub Docks in Canada as Decision Looms on RCN Procurement

ROKS Dosan Ahn Changho class submarine, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:ROKS_Dosan_Ahn_Changho_class_submarine.png

A port visit at CFB Esquimalt by a Dosan Ahn Changho-class submarine is meant to demonstrate strategic and industrial benefits of the Hanhwa Ocean bid ahead of Ottawa’s final decision on who will supply the next generation of RCN submarines.

Geopolitics of the GIUK Gap: Past, Present, and Future

GIUK Gap; Made with geographical data from Natural Earth.

The GIUK Gap – a mainstay of 20th century naval strategy – is taking on new importance amid mounting Russian naval activity, Arctic expansion, and emerging hybrid threats.

Greenland, Panama, and the Rio Treaty

Canal de Panamá - Panama Canal Construction. Miraflores Locks., public domain. https://www.arsouth.army.mil/About/History-Photo-Gallery/igphoto/2002462539/

Latin America should push back against US threats over Panama and Greenland, and the 1947 Rio Treaty provides the necessary legal framework to do so.

Trump’s Greenland Push Revives an Old Question: Who Gets to Consent?

A North American Aerospace Defense Command F-35 Lightning II fighter aircraft from the Wisconsin Air National Guard’s 115th Fighter Wing sit on the tarmac at Pituffik Space Force Base, Greenland, Oct. 9, 2025. Operating in the Arctic provides the flexibility and adaptability needed to overcome logistical hurdles in a dynamic and unforgiving environment. Greenland as part of the Kingdom of Denmark has long played an important role in the defense of North America, which strengthens NORAD's ability to protect the continent from today’s threats and emerging challenges from all approaches. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Maxim Dewolf)

The United States does not need a sovereignty workaround for Greenland. It needs the opposite: a disciplined commitment to consent, clarity, and negotiated access that treats Greenland as a political community, not a strategic asset with residents attached.

Greenland and the Limits of Performative Power

President Donald Trump delivers remarks at a Rural Health Transformation Event, modified, https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery/president-donald-trump-delivers-remarks-at-a-rural-health-transformation-event/

President Trump’s Greenland obsession is not a show of strength. It is a self-inflicted liability: alienating a longstanding ally and, by extension, Europe, while pursuing a foreign-policy posture rooted more in impulse than strategy.

Geopolitics Weekly (Greenland, US-Taiwan Tariff Deal, Syria Offensive)

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This week we examine how a rapidly evolving situation in Greenland could remake trans-Atlantic relations, details of the long-awaited US-Taiwan tariff deal, a shock government offensive that changed the map of Syria, and Canada’s efforts to thaw out its relations with China.

Breaking the Ice: Unpacking the US-Finland Icebreaker Deal

The heavy ice breaker USCGC Polar Star (WAGB 10) breaks ice approaching McMurdo Station, Antarctica. Joint Task Force-Support Forces Antarctica oversees the activities of the joint services and provides Department of Defense support to the National Science Foundation and United States Antarctic Program through Operation Deep Freeze. (U.S. Navy photo by Senior Chief Mass Communication Specialist RJ Stratchko), modified, https://www.navsea.navy.mil/Media/News/Article-View/Article/3653655/us-coast-guards-polar-star-cuts-through-ice-with-help-of-nswcpd/

The recent US-Finland icebreaker deal has two objectives: close the capability gap with Russia in the High North and thaw out a long-frozen segment of the US shipbuilding industry.

Arctic Geopolitics: Strategic Stakes for China, Russia and the U.S.

Canadian Coast Garde icebreaker LOUIS S. ST. LAURENT and helicopter silhouetted in the sun. September 18, 2008. / modified / cc NOAA Photo Library https://flickr.com/photos/noaaphotolib/5036394563/in/photolist-8F3QD2-8F3QBD-Luj5BE-8F71am-a3FKwq-2mse7Kc-8F3Q6M-LhfDzP-2msd4oo-h1z4d3-buymZG-8F3QFg-qEiKaX-2i2MvPL-2ms9pyo-rjvCVA-ntqWwJ-2ki412q-rjvD3E-rB5UJp-2mrMxEg-2msaxpt-fcZeFd-2mrzHmi-rjvCXu

A thawing Arctic has become the latest frontier of geopolitical competition; here’s what China, Russia, and the United States are hoping to achieve in the region.

The Northern Sea Route: Russia’s Bet on Arctic Shipping

cc Flickr Eli Duke, modified, Antarctica: Vladimir Ignatyuk, the Russian Icebreaker, https://flickr.com/photos/elisfanclub/9549383718/in/photolist-fxR65S-2isgtZ2-2isdQji-2isAzZR-UDQQVh-wiycjT-2isguyd-fxR89A-6QkGJc-fchtL-UDQU1L-wjPVcF-4nfvLR-fchum-2isxVEA-68DBMN-2isAtFd-2isBEG5-2isgtW1-5dWyvp-2isAvDr-2isgtPC-2isBV4g-2isxVf2-2isAz42-dHdzgJ-2ishAAH-bBQHDn-2isBDD8-2isgtQu-2isdSvN-2isAyD4-2isAvU1-2isBGYQ-2isBXhp-dDfCWQ-2isBGGT-2ishCgM-2isAyde-dDfCgY-2isgtmP-dDae8n-2isAwnL-dDadS6-2isBDbe-2isgvYh-2isdRVV-w38atS-dDaftR-2isxUpV

The Northern Sea Route holds out the appealing possibility of circumventing shipping chokepoints like Suez and Malacca, bringing Russian exports to new markets in South Asia. But the logistics of operating in the Arctic remain daunting.

Trump’s Greenland Play: New Realities in Arctic Geopolitics

cc US National Guard, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/thenationalguard/52559487300/in/photolist-2o5v7qU-25VYCJW-2iJ7Ffx-Hy4aDd-2mTKD6e-2gUtwwc-28zWwXY-28zWwPw-28J3koK-HVtnZ7-28DB9wj-HYvNcT-K1sqUa-25Y97M9-27CD5Bh-27CD4oL-28JaYi2-H3JUUM-2ixygcL-25UjHpE-Be4QKA-2htFNZM-25Y1p9U-LAf4aG-H3E2ub-2pnWC3P-KEvGen-HVtmBY-H3E1ah-2nbfKEa-2ibDYCm-HS91Lr-2qAAmQK-2g6hjTs-H3JWKR-HYvNLZ-28EFWvD-2nYwmUt-2ocyjzK-2hsb7g1-AmT2iV-AkwmUR-2c34dj1-EKRiat-2n7sJxT-KcNhtE-dQJmPf-2ockkKg-y8T1G9-KcNfFm, University of Alaska Army ROTC cadets board an Alaska Army National Guard UH-60L Black Hawk helicopter, assigned to the 1-207th Aviation Regiment, during an air assault training event at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska, Dec. 2, 2022. Following the tactical insertion, the Seawolf Detachment cadets maneuvered across snow-covered terrain, assaulted opposition forces, secured their objective, and concluded with an air exfiltration. The AKARNG’s General Support Aviation Battalion routinely trains with all branches of the military as well as civilian agencies to hone its operational interoperability and maintain readiness for a wide range of state and federal missions. (U.S. Air Force photo by Alejandro Peña)

Greenland represents an opportunity to secure resources, dominate emerging trade routes, and project power throughout the Arctic. Little wonder it has captured the strategic imagination of the Trump administration.

China and Russia Arctic Policy Convergence? Shifting Geopolitics in the North

Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Paul F. Zukunft highlighted the important role of icebreakers to maintain defense readiness in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, enforce treaties and other laws, and provide support to facilitate the movement of goods and personnel. Here, the Coast Guard Cutter Polar Star operates off the shore of Antarctica, Jan. 16, 2017. Coast Guard photo by Chief Petty Officer David Mosley, modified, https://dod.defense.gov/OIR/gallery/igphoto/2001902896/

China and Russia Arctic policy is converging as climate change opens the region up to international shipping. And this is creating new challenges for a US defense establishment that has long taken the stability of the region for granted.

Russia’s Tough Talk on Arctic Sovereignty Must Be Taken Seriously

The crew of USS Connecticut (SSN 22) enjoys ice liberty after surfacing in the Arctic Circle during Ice Exercise (ICEX) 2020. BEAUFORT SEA, Arctic Circle (Mar. 07, 2020) -- The crew of the Seawolf-class fast-attack submarine, USS Connecticut (SSN 22), enjoys ice liberty after surfacing in the Arctic Circle during Ice Exercise (ICEX) 2020. ICEX 2020 is a biennial submarine exercise which promotes interoperability between allies and partners to maintain operational readiness and regional stability, while improving capabilities to operate in the Arctic environment. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Michael B. Zingaro/Released)200307-N-KB401-1003; cc Official US Navy Page, modified, Flickr

Littoral Arctic states like Canada must take heed of Moscow’s foregrounding of economics and sovereignty in its Arctic strategy, and prepare accordingly.

Backgrounder: China’s Arctic Strategy

XueLong, cc Bahnfrend, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Xue_Long,_Fremantle,_2016_(4).jpg

Beijing isn’t letting geography get in the way of it establishing a robust presence in the next great frontier of geopolitical competition.

Greenland: A New Frontier of Great Power Competition

Greenland, cc Flickr Greenland Travel, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

In opening its doors to foreign investors, an independence-minded Greenland could be ushering in a new era of geopolitical competition in the Arctic.

Bering Strait: A New Chokepoint for Great Power Competition

The attack submarine USS Annapolis (SSN 760) rests in the Arctic Ocean after surfacing through three feet of ice during Ice Exercise 2009 on March 21, 2009. The two-week training exercise, which is used to test submarine operability and war-fighting capability in Arctic conditions, also involves the USS Helena (SSN 725), the University of Washington and personnel from the Navy Arctic Submarine Laboratory. DoD photo by Petty Officer 1st Class Tiffini M. Jones, U.S. Navy. (Released), https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:USS_Annapolis_ICEX.jpg

The Northern Sea Route through the Arctic will alter global trade flows and in doing so create new geopolitical chokepoints. Chief among them is the Bering Strait, where US, Russian, and Chinese interests converge.

Greenland and the Arctic ‘Great Game’

CC Thomas Leth-Olsen, Flickr, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

The blunt manner of President Trump’s pitch to buy Greenland might have been ridiculous, but the geopolitical rationale behind it certainly isn’t.

A ‘Polar Silk Road’: China’s Arctic Policy

ARCTIC OCEAN (March 19, 2011) Sailors and members of the Applied Physics Laboratory Ice Station clear ice from the hatch of the Seawolf-class submarine USS Connecticut (SSN 22) as it surfaces above the ice during ICEX 2011. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Kevin S. O'Brien/Released)

Exploring the geopolitical motivations behind Beijing's desire to build a 'Polar Silk Road' in the Arctic.

Russia in the Arctic: Friend or Foe?

cc Flickr Christopher Michel, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

Russia is making great strides in the Arctic. Should other Arctic Council states be concerned?

The Kuril Islands: Power Projection and Resource Protection

Generated by Google Gemini AI on August 7, 2025. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

The disputed Kuril Islands have a key role in Putin’s vision of an empowered Russia.

Militarizing the Arctic: Is Canada Ready for a Literal Cold War with Russia?

Generated by Google Gemini on August 7, 2025. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

Canada’s military preparations in this key strategic region have paled in comparison to Russia.

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