Two major developments occurred in Somalia last week: a merger between the Ras Kamboni Brigade and al-Shabab, and al-Shabab’s long-suspected but hitherto unmade declaration of open alliance with Al Qaeda. Both do not bode well for the survival of the beleaguered Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Mogadishu.

While the central government struggles to cope with bubbling discontent in both north and south Yemen, Al Qaeda stands poised to expand into any vacuum that may form.