FORECAST
Whatever triumphant government proclamations follow the successful rescue of Richard Phillips, the piracy problem in the Gulf of Aden is going to get far worse before it gets any better.
Until now, economic factors and the absence of violent ideology have ensured that the captives of Somali pirates were treated humanely and released unharmed. Unfortunately, this is about to change. As the ranks of Somali pirates swell, it is entirely likely that the original environmental justification will fade into a general anti-Western rallying call. In the wake of Richard Phillips’ rescue, pirate groups have been quick to vow oaths of bloody revenge on America-flagged ships. Given the thinned ranks and limited range of international naval deployments, it is safe to say that at some point in the near future the pirates will have their revenge.
Even more troubling is the prospect of pirates adopting the aegis of al-Qaeda’s anti-Western ideology. On April 16, Al Qaeda released a video urging Somalis to continue their attacks on ‘crusader’ forces at sea. In an environment of escalating violence, the anti-imperialist message could gain traction and eventually result in increased al-Qaeda involvement in Somalia.
There are several factors that point towards a continuing spiral of conflict in the area. The international naval deployment, though ostensibly a bold symbol of multilateral consensus, is woefully inadequate for the task at hand. Some 20 ships from 14 nations are responsible for protecting shipping over an area of a million square miles. Any shift in the zone that naval forces can offer protection is swiftly matched by a shift in the pirates’ operating zone; an area that has recently expanded further southward along the coast of Kenya and in some instances reaches as far out to sea as 900km. There are no clear lines of command or co-operation between competing NATO and EU naval deployments. Even American military jurisdiction itself is convoluted. The Gulf of Aden doesn’t fall under the jurisdiction of the newly formed US African Central Command. Instead, it is the responsibility of Central Command, the same division that’s currently charged with administering the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
The leadership deficit is not likely to improve any time soon. In the short term, Washington will continue to shirk away from calls to adopt a stronger leadership role, thereby avoiding having to shoulder primary responsibility and embark on yet another costly military deployment. Also, it is European shipping interests rather than American ones that are most at risk from Somali piracy. 80% of the products being moved through the gulf are headed to European destinations.
The volume of pirates operating in the Gulf of Aden is also likely to increase. Impoverished Somalis are flooding into coastal ‘pirate’ towns, drawn by the prospect of earnings that are hugely disproportionate to any other sources of income within the failed state. In addition to money, there is also glory to be garnered as a pirate as most of the original pirates took up arms as a patriotic response to Western companies dumping toxic waste off the coast of Somalia.
SUMMARY OF EVENTS: April 13 – 20, 2009
NORTH AMERICA
Canada
Foreign nations have stepped up their efforts to infiltrate Canada and steal valuable industrial, military and commercial secrets, the Canadian spy agency says in its latest annual report.
Canadian police, acting on a tip-off from the United States, charged a Toronto man on Friday with trying to illegally export nuclear technology to Iran.
United States
The US Navy on Sunday dramatically ended a high-seas standoff with Somali pirates, rescuing a US captain held hostage on a lifeboat for five days and killing three of his four captors.
A recently proposed but little-noticed Senate bill would allow the federal government to shut down the Internet in times of declared emergency, and enables unprecedented federal oversight of private network administration.
The unit that all but destroyed AIG has failed to sign up for the overhaul of the global derivatives market which was given added impetus by the troubles at the US insurance group.
The Department of Homeland Security is warning law enforcement officials about a rise in “rightwing extremist activity,” saying the economic recession, the election of America’s first black president and the return of a few disgruntled war veterans could swell the ranks of white-power militias.
The National Security Agency intercepted private e-mail messages and phone calls of Americans in recent months on a scale that went beyond the broad legal limits established by Congress last year, government officials said in recent interviews.
The Obama administration is leaning toward keeping secret some graphic details of tactics allowed in Central Intelligence Agency interrogations, despite a push by some top officials to make the information public, according to people familiar with the discussions.
The U.S. and its allies battled Somalia’s pirates on two fronts Wednesday, with French forces seizing a bandit mother ship and Washington seeking to keep the marauders from their spoils.
The Obama administration on Thursday informed CIA officials who used waterboarding and other harsh interrogation tactics on terror suspects that they will not be prosecuted, senior administration officials told The Associated Press.
The Bush administration Office of Legal Counsel authorized the CIA to put insects inside a confinement box as part of the administration’s “harsh interrogation” practice, as well as throwing detainees into walls, according to memos released by President Barack Obama on Thursday.
SOUTH AMERICA
Bolivia
Bolivian security forces said they thwarted an assassination plot against President Evo Morales on Thursday, killing three people in a half-hour shootout in the opposition stronghold of Santa Cruz.
WESTERN EUROPE
Britain
A London policeman has been questioned on suspicion of manslaughter over a man’s death at G20 summit protests this month, after it was found he died of a haemorrhage and not a heart attack, officials said Friday.
EASTERN EUROPE
Russia
Russia’s foreign minister criticized on Thursday NATO’s plans to conduct exercises in Georgia, saying they could give the Georgian regime a sense of impunity, and raise tensions in the Caucasus region.
MIDDLE EAST
Iraq
Some of the Iraqi former insurgents recruited by US forces to fight Al-Qaeda are simply biding their time and waiting for a chance to resume attacks, Vice President Adel Abdel Mahdi warned Tuesday.
Lebanon
A retired Lebanese general was arrested on suspicion of spying for Israel, a senior Lebanese security official said Tuesday.
Lebanese interrogation of three detainees on suspicion of spying for Israel has led to the arrest of another Israel-linked spy network, the daily al-Akhbar reported Friday.
EAST ASIA
North Korea
North Korea said on Tuesday it was no longer bound by an international nuclear disarmament deal and would re-start its plant that makes arms-grade plutonium after the UN chastised it for launching a long-range rocket.
North Korea ordered UN inspectors to leave on Tuesday after saying it would quit international nuclear disarmament talks and restart a plant that makes bomb-grade plutonium, the United Nations said.
SOUTH ASIA
India
Indian newspapers applauded Friday the millions of voters who cast their ballots during the first day of marathon general elections, despite attacks by Maoist rebels in several states.
Thailand
Thousands of Thai anti-government protesters clashed with armed soldiers and Bangkok residents Monday, leaving two dead and 113 injured in street battles that raged across the capital.
Thai anti-government protesters threatened with a military offensive abandoned a three-week rally at the premier’s office Tuesday, pulling the kingdom back from a potentially bloody showdown in the streets.
The founder of Thailand’s “yellow shirt” protest movement, which was behind the week-long occupation of Bangkok’s main airports late last year, was shot and wounded early on Friday, a spokesman for his movement said.
AFRICA
Togo
Togolese President Faure Gnassingbe escaped a ‘coup attempt’ after his half-brother was pin-pointed as being involved in the plot.
OCEANA
Fiji
Fiji’s military have been given permission to shoot civilians without fear of being prosecuted.
