On November 27, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Syrian rebel group allied with Turkish-backed factions, launched a major offensive against Syrian government forces in Idlib. The assault led to the capture of Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city, along with other strategic areas in Aleppo and Hama governorates. HTS is now pushing toward the city of Hama and the capital, Damascus, though the outlook remains uncertain.

Turkey’s support has been critical to HTS’ recent success, allowing the group to seize territory in northwest Syria and develop a diversified economy in areas under its control. But the fall of Aleppo could well mark a turning point in this gradual advance, as the Syrian regime, backed by Russia and Iran, is preparing to mount a counteroffensive. And while HTS has formed alliances with other players in the Syrian civil war, the group’s future success will largely depend on whether it can maintain control of the territory it has gained.