FORECAST
The 5,000-person strong Chadian Republican Guard has successfully repelled rebel forces from The Union of Forces for Democracy and Development (UFDD). The UFDD invaded the capital N’Djamena on February 2 in an attempt to oust , whom they claim is a dictator.
The arrival of France-led EU troops will prop up President Deby allowing him to attack the remnants of the Sudanese-supported UFDD in the East of the country. Deby may also support Sudanese rebels to limit Khartoum’s ability to interfere in Chad.
Although the 1,300 French forces stationed in Chad did not participate in the fighting, it is rumored that in addition to guarding Western assets they supported the President by providing intelligence on the rebel advance.
It is likely that the UFDD invaded in order to pre-empt an anticipated EU troop deployment along the Chadian border with Sudan. Such a deployment would disrupt the UFDD border stronghold and provide cover for President Deby to wage war against the rebels both directly and indirectly by supporting rival Sudanese rebels.
The EU plan to deploy troops to the region is in response to violence in Sudan’s Darfur region spilling over across the border further destabilizing both Sudan and Chad and threatening Western economic interests in both countries.
Since 2000 a consortium of Western oil companies has invested over $3.7B USD to develop oil reserves in Southern Chad. The region is estimated to contain over 1 Billion barrels.
Similarly, Sudan, which started exporting oil in 1999, has proven oil reserves of over 560 Million barrels with estimated reserves of as many as 5 Billion barrels.
France supports President Idriss Deby to maintain stability and economic certainty. Should the France-led EU force of 3,700 troops be deployed in Chad it will be a major blow for the UFDD.
SUMMARY OF EVENTS: January 28 – February 4, 2008
NORTH AMERICA
United States
Home foreclosures spiked across the United States during 2007 leaving more than one percent of all households in danger of losing their homes, an industry report showed Tuesday.
The US economy suffered 17,000 job losses in January marking the first monthly losses since 2003, a government snapshot showed Friday in a fresh sign of brewing economic trouble.
U.S. central banks may have less than half the gold they claim to possess in their vaults, charges a watchdog group in an ad scheduled for publication in the Wall Street Journal this week.
The US Federal Reserve said Friday it would auction a total of 60 billion dollars in February in two separate transactions to pump liquidity into the stressed banking system.
George Bush has resumed his practice of disregarding portions of new laws, quietly reserving the right to build permanent military bases in Iraq, keep Congress in the dark on spying activity and block two accountability measures aimed at private security firms accused of wartime abuses.
SOUTH AMERICA
The 6th Summit of the Bolivarian Alternative for Latin America (ALBA), a joint Venezuelan-Cuban initiative based on fair trade as an alternative to the U.S.-sponsored Free Trade Area of the Americas, concluded in Caracas on Saturday.
Venezuela
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez urged his Latin American allies on Saturday to begin withdrawing billions of dollars in international reserves from U.S. banks, warning of a looming U.S. economic crisis.
Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez suggested creating a joint military force for the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA) member nations to see off any possible United States military aggression.
WESTERN EUROPE
Germany on Friday rejected an urgent US call for combat troops in battle-ravaged southern Afghanistan, insisting Berlin’s focus on reconstruction efforts in the relatively calm north was justified.
EASTERN EUROPE
Russia
Russia’s Defense Ministry plans to change the configuration of troops in Kaliningrad in response to U.S. missile shield plans in Central Europe, a high-ranking army official said on Wednesday.
Poland
The United States supports modernizing Poland’s air defenses, a key Polish demand for hosting part of a planned missile defense system, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Friday.
THE MIDDLE EAST
High-technology services across large tracts of Asia, the Middle East and North Africa were crippled Thursday following a widespread Internet failure which brought many businesses to a standstill and left others struggling to cope.
Iran
It will take weeks before the U.N. Security Council is ready to vote on a new round of sanctions against Iran proposed last week by six world powers, council diplomats said on Monday.
Israel
Israel’s Supreme Court on Wednesday upheld the government’s decision to reduce fuel and electricity deliveries to the Gaza Strip as a form of “economic warfare” against the armed Hamas group in control there.
Iraq
More than one million Iraqis have died as a result of the conflict in their country since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003, according to research conducted by one of Britain’s leading polling groups.
Increased Iraqi oil revenues stemming from high prices and improved security are piling up in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York rather than being spent on needed reconstruction projects, a Washington Times study of Iraq’s spending and revenue figures has shown.
EAST ASIA
China
Authorities in China on Thursday warned of more travel misery to come as millions of people struggled to get home for the country’s most important holiday amid savage winter weather.
AFRICA
Kenya
Mobs in Kenya hacked and burnt dozens of people to death on Monday as tribal violence ignited by flawed presidential elections over a month ago threatened to spiral out of control.
Kenya’s feuding parties agreed on Friday to a framework for talks to resolve a violent political crisis, in which some 850 people have died, within 15 days, former U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan said.
AFRICOM
A year after President George W. Bush approved its creation, the new U.S. military command for Africa is finding its feet but has quietly dropped talk of basing itself on the African continent.
Andrew G. Marshall is a contributor to Geopoliticalmonitor.com
