FORECAST
Protests in Indian-administered Kashmir have left 15 civilians dead, fueling fears of a repeat of the widespread violence of 1989.
Recent protests are part of a wider trend of anti-India sentiment that can be traced back to the killing of a 17-year-old student by the police on June 11th. Since then, public animosity towards indiscriminate search and seizures by the police has blossomed into a series of separatist protests.
According to the Indian government, this latest rash of protest is being incited by Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan-based militant group thought to be behind the 2008 Mumbai attacks. In reality, the protests are most likely an extension of strained relations between the civilian population and security forces in Kashmir. The Indian government is not ignorant of the friction that exists between ruled and rulers, as there have been consistent rumblings that Delhi is mulling a relaxation of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act as a way to ease tensions. Thus, security forces in Kashmir could soon find their powers of search and seizure severely curtailed. There have also been rumblings that Indian soldiers could even lose their legal immunity.
As it stands right now, it would take a substantial escalation for this latest rash of disorder to register any serious concern from Delhi. Pakistan- the region’s perennial provocateur- is currently distracted by its own flood disaster and violent insurgency.
It should be noted however that there are several factors that are indicating an escalation. There is now a generation of Kashmiri youths who were brought up loathing and fearing the security forces. It wouldn’t take much for them to become politically activated and take the streets en masse. Moreover, this kind of disillusionment with the Indian government is not restricted to young people. According to a Chatham House poll, anywhere from 75 to 95 percent of people in the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley support independence from both India and Pakistan. For the Indian government, Kashmiri independence is synonymous with a state in the heart of India that is steeped in Pakistani influence; in other words, it is unacceptable.
If the Kashmir problem gets too big for the Indian government to ignore, expect their negotiating position to be extremely conciliatory. Delhi has always been careful to keep Kashmir from becoming an international issue and it if it is to continue such a policy it will need to give the impression that the situation is still under control. To this end, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has already come out and stated that his government is willing to talk to any group that renounces violence, though he did not make any mention of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act. The most likely course of action over the short term will be to enact a slight relaxation of police powers and hope that the protest movement simply runs out of steam.
