Global Forecast (10-25-2021)
A major lapse of the ‘ASEAN way,’ COVID-19 spreads in China , and Evergrande lives to fight another day.
Supply Pinch Sustains Record Iron Prices
Moves by Beijing to cool iron prices can only go so far against a backdrop of lingering supply shortfalls.
Rebels Repelled in Chad
The arrival of France-led EU troops will prop up Chadian President Idriss Deby allowing him to attack the remnants of the Sudanese-supported UFDD in the East of the country.
Wall Street in Crisis
If the financial crisis caused by Wall Street manages to diminish Washington’s prestige, ability to influence policy, and deters allies from following the US’ lead on foreign policy, it will achieve what 50 years of near nuclear confrontation with the Soviet Union failed to do—the dissolution of the American Empire.
Kosovo Independence
Serbia and Russia have refused to recognize Kosovo’s independence arguing the declaration is illegal and sets international precedent that is applicable to other breakaway regions including pro-Russian South Ossieta and Abkhazia in Georgia.
End Result of Israel-Gaza War
As an increasing number of Israelis and Palestinians shift towards more militant means of achieving their respective political goals against a backdrop of coalescing hawkish groups, failed peace initiatives, and rising anti-Israeli sentiment, expect a continued growth in Mid-East violence centered on Israel.
President Obama & the Mideast
American foreign policy vis-à-vis the Middle East under President-Elect Barack Obama is not likely to differ from his predecessor, the universally reviled George W. Bush.
Israel Strikes Hamas in Gaza
Israel launches a post-Christmas war against Gaza, killing over 200 Palestinians in the first day alone. The intense aerial bombardment is the worst suffering the tiny and densely populated territory has faced in its 60-year history. Israel’s Defence Minister, Ehud Barak, has declared an “all-out war against Hamas”.
Obama’s Foreign Policy is Bush 2.0
President-Elect Barack Obama has signalled his desire to continue outgoing lame duck President George W. Bush’s foreign policy agenda by floating candidates for top US security posts closely aligned with the latter.
Point Counterpoint: Turkey Should Be Expelled from NATO
Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system is just the latest of many transgressions against the Atlantic Alliance. It’s time for Ankara to go.