al-Shabab in Somalia
Two major developments occurred in Somalia last week: a merger between the Ras Kamboni Brigade and al-Shabab, and al-Shabab’s long-suspected but hitherto unmade declaration of open alliance with Al Qaeda. Both do not bode well for the survival of the beleaguered Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Mogadishu.
PLA Navy
A confidential report that was mistakenly posted on the internet by the US Office for Naval Intelligence suggests that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLA Navy) has been making rapid progress on a variety of modern weapon platforms.
US, Russian Media Waging a Virtual Nuclear War
We are entering a new Cold War on the information front.
Post-NATO Afghanistan
This forecast aims to push through the rhetorical hyperbole on both sides of the Afghanistan debate, and in doing so provide an objective assessment of what an early NATO exit would entail.
U.S. shooting blanks in trade war
One of President Obama’s campaign promises has come back to haunt him in Beijing. It seems that compelling the Chinese authorities to revalue the yuan is easier said than done.
Asian regionalism: a new EU?
The ‘East Asian Community Project’ that emerged from a recent ASEAN summit in Thailand is evidence of growing regionalism in the wake of American decline. Any real Asian EU-style bloc however will be a long time coming.
U.S. dollar: Condition terminal
A report revealing high-level meetings to de-link oil from the U.S. dollar has gold spiking and financial analysts buzzing. It begs the question: how long does the U.S. dollar really have as global reserve currency? Full Story
Iran ready to cooperate?
Optimism surrounding last week’s P5 + 1 talks in Geneva could end up being well founded, as the available options on both sides of the Iranian nuclear crisis are narrowing towards a diplomatic solution.
China & India: The new naval arms race
The near-constant media hype surrounding BRIC countries could lead some to think of them as a coherent international bloc devoid of internal divisions. Chinese efforts to create of a ‘string of pearls’ around India’s neck can serve as a reminder that this is not the case.
Global Forecast (02-23-2016)
The Kurds advance in northern Syria, a big deficit for the Canadian government, and 'Brexit' fears hit financial markets.