Summary

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan around Nagorno-Karabakh has reached a dangerous stage where the existing status quo is difficult to preserve due to Azerbaijan’s military successes and the inherent problems of Armenia’s dependence on Russia. Nevertheless, as Moscow has a big geopolitical stake in the conflict, it will continue to supply arms to both Baku and Yerevan to keep the military balance, preserve the status quo, and deny any other power such as Turkey or Iran possibilities to increase their own influence in the conflict resolution process.

Background

Unlike other breakaway conflicts across the former Soviet Union, the one around Nagorno-Karabakh has not been frozen since its inception in the early 1990s. Daily ceasefire violations at times reached more than 100 instances, increasing the difficulty of reaching any peaceful resolution to the standoff between Armenia and Azerbaijan. As the nearly war-type situation between the two sides showed in April 2016, the conflict is not static and rather is subject to changing geopolitical circumstances.