Libya’s civil war has taken on the east-west dynamic that has divided the tribal fabric of the country in the past. To the west in Tripoli there’s the Libya Dawn government composed of the former, largely Islamist government that was supposed to have been voted out in elections last June. To the east in Tubruq there’s the government that emerged victorious in June elections, which fled to the east and came under the protection of General Haftar, a Gadhafi-era figure who has since launched “Operation Dignity” to reunite Libya and drive the Islamists from power. On top of this there are Islamist elements who have fought on the battlefields of Syria, Mali, and Iraq, and are lining up to declare allegiance to Islamic State (ISIS) . This is why we are seeing Islamic State victories in Sirte and Derna in recent weeks; it’s not indicative of a grassroots ISIS presence in the country but rather pre-existing tribal and Islamist elements rallying around the black flag.