As the Ukraine war stretches into its third year, it is time for the United States to reconsider its role and objectives in the conflict. The U.S. has invested heavily in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression, but prolonging the war no longer serves Western interests. While the initial aim of weakening Russia has been largely achieved, continuing the conflict could have negative repercussions for the United States and its allies.
The Diminished Power of Russia
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has laid bare critical deficiencies in its military logistics, planning, and execution. Expectations of a swift victory were quickly shattered as Russian forces faced fierce resistance from the Ukrainian military. This resistance, coupled with strategic miscalculations, has led to substantial military costs for Russia. According to the RAND Corporation, by September 2022, these costs were estimated at $40 billion, with potential direct military spending reaching $132 billion by 2024. Additionally, Russia’s GDP losses for 2022 ranged between $81 billion and $104 billion, and financial capital destruction was estimated at $322 billion.
Despite sustaining itself through oil and gas revenues, Russia’s long-term economic outlook appears bleak. The country’s increased reliance on China and India, often at unfavorable terms, highlights its economic vulnerabilities. Internal repression and significant emigration due to conscription and political dissent have strained Russia’s societal and economic fabric.
The invasion has also severely tarnished Russia’s reputation as a military superpower. The failure to achieve a swift victory, coupled with visible weaknesses in military operations and high casualties, has damaged its image on the global stage. Despite saber rattling, Russia can no longer be recognized as a superpower and does not represent a major threat to the United States and its allies.
The Financial Burden on the United States
With these aims achieved, the United States should consider shifting its strategy in Ukraine, as prolonging the war will result in more disadvantages than benefits.
The U.S. has provided nearly $175 billion in aid and military assistance to Ukraine since the invasion began. However, after more than two years of conflict, the effectiveness of this support on the battlefield is debatable. Ukrainian forces are facing severe shortages of ammunition, troops, and air defenses. The much-anticipated counteroffensive last year failed to reclaim significant territories from Russian forces, leading to depleted morale among Ukrainian troops. The relentless bombardment, shortage of advanced weaponry, and heavy battlefield losses have taken a toll on Ukraine’s ability to sustain its defense. Continued financial assistance to Ukraine is unlikely to change the course of the war, with the best likely scenario preventing Russia from seizing more territories, albeit at the cost of substantial Ukrainian casualties.
Moreover, US public support for the war is dwindling. While a majority still support providing aid to Ukraine, this support has decreased over time. Currently, only 60% of Americans support continued military and economic assistance. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 48% believe the U.S. is providing too much aid. Additionally, only 36% of Americans believe that supporting Ukraine enhances U.S. national security, and public confidence in Ukraine’s success on the battlefield has decreased significantly.
Geopolitical Repercussions and Global Perception
Washington’s current refusal to consider negotiations has impacted its reputation, particularly in the Global South. Many developing nations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America show favorable opinions towards Russia and China, reflecting deeper ideological divides and opposition to perceived Western dominance in global politics. A study by the University of Cambridge highlights a significant geopolitical divide, where these regions often oppose what they see as Western negative influence on global politics. Moreover, a report from Crisis Group indicates that during UN debates, non-Western states have shown a stronger inclination towards advocating for an early, negotiated end to the conflict, rather than taking a hardline stance against Russia. Continued insistence by Washington that Ukraine should keep fighting will likely further alienate the United States, diminishing its ability to leverage relations in the Global South.
The continued conflict has also brought China and Russia closer together, posing a strategic challenge to the U.S. Trade between the two countries surged to $240 billion in 2023. China has become Russia’s top trade partner, supplying critical goods and purchasing discounted Russian fuel. While China has refrained from providing direct military aid, it has supported Russia diplomatically and rhetorically, echoing Russian narratives about the war and criticizing Western sanctions. This partnership includes increased technical cooperation and joint military exercises, leveraging their shared interests and grievances to build alliances and enhance their global influence. For instance, China has become a key player in infrastructure projects across the Middle East and North Africa, while Russia has significant investments in the region’s energy sector. Combating a united Russia and China will be a more challenging endeavor for the United States.
The Path Forward: Time for Negotiations
The U.S. has achieved its goal of weakening Russia. The continued war, however, presents diminishing returns and growing risks for the United States and the world, including threats of a nuclear war. The time has come for the U.S. to consider negotiations with Russia. Such negotiations will undoubtedly be challenging and will require significant concessions from Ukraine. Yet, the alternative—an unending war with no clear victor—poses even greater dangers.
The war has already exposed Russia’s vulnerabilities and significantly weakened its military and economic standing. By facilitating a negotiated settlement, the U.S. can focus on its increasing competition with China, a much stronger adversary than Russia.
A prolonged conflict risks further draining U.S. resources and weakening public support for international interventions. Therefore, the U.S. should pivot from prolonging the conflict to facilitating a negotiated settlement. Doing so will not only save lives and resources but also help restore global stability and enhance the United States’ standing in the international community.
Alexander Clackson is the founder of Global Political Insight think tank in London, and a researcher on Russia, which he has covered for the past decade. He is currently conducting research on the political views of ethnic minorities in Russia.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author(s) alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Geopoliticalmonitor.com.
