FORECAST
The political divide in Iranian society has once again made itself known to the world, and all signs are pointing to a long and bloody conflict.
Iran’s opposition movement has sent a clear message that it will not fade away, launching a chain of new protests in Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, and Najafabad. Protestors have managed to take advantage of the Shiite holiday of Ashura- an event that is traditionally marked by Iranians taking to the streets in religious procession- to once again put pressure on Ayatollah Khamenei and the Mahmoud Ahmadinejad government. One notable casualty of the new surge has been Mir Hossein Mousavi’s nephew, Seyed Ali Mousavi, who was shot dead on Sunday during a protest in central Tehran.
The death of Seyed Ali Mousavi is one of several factors pointing to intensified dissent over the next few weeks. The reform movement recently lost a key ally in Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, and a period of mourning for him may serve as a pretense for more protests. More importantly, government pressure on Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Kourabi has recently intensified. In early December, rumors were swirling that Ayatollah Khamenei was ready to use an incident in which protestors burned pictures of the late Ayatollah Khomeini as a pretense for arresting the top leadership in the reform movement. Mousavi and Kourabi may now be of the opinion that this latest flare up is their last chance to save themselves from punishment at the hands of the Mahmoud Ahmadinejad regime, thus increasing the odds of an open break with the religious authorities in Tehran.
As of Monday, the Iranian government has begun to arrest some of Mousavi’s top aides- further evidence that this latest incident will not result in the same kind of anxious co-existence between government authorities and reform politicians that has characterized Iranian politics since last June.
How the Obama administration decides to handle this outbreak of violence is a critical question, and we are already seeing a marked difference from last June’s response. The White House has been swift to strongly condemn the suppression of civilian protest in Iran, declaring that, “hope and history are on the side who peacefully seek their universal human rights, and so is the United States.” The wording stands as a stark contrast to President Obama’s being ‘deeply troubled’ last June, and it suggests that Washington could be openly supportive of the reform movement under the right conditions.
Of course, the Obama administration will be careful not to jump onto a sinking ship, and in doing so provide ideological ammunition for the Iranian government to brand protestors as foreign agents. To prematurely throw their lot in with the protestors could prove disastrous for American interests, as Iran still enjoys considerable leverage in the form of potential energy disruption, and influence in Iraq, Lebanon, and beyond.
It is, however, also true that much of the motivation underpinning President Obama’s muted response in June no longer exists. The prospects for negotiations bringing an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions are bleaker than ever, and with a new round of sanctions looming in the New Year, a victory the reform movement would bypass both the uncertainty of sanctions and the political and economic costs of a war.
Expect protests in Iran to intensify in scope and violence over the short term, leading to spiraling instability in Iranian society. Despite the impression often imparted by the international media, Iranian society remains deeply divided and the reform movement is by no means universally supported. Thus, an easy solution will remain elusive, and the Iranian political divide can be expected to carry on as a potentially explosive destabilizing force in the Middle East.
SUMMARY OF EVENTS: December 28th – January 4th
NORTH AMERICA
United States
U.S. officials say a Northwest Airlines passenger from Nigeria said he was acting on behalf of al Qaeda when he tried to blow up a flight Friday as it landed in Detroit.
The Nato mission in Afghanistan has confirmed that a man featured in a new Taliban video is a missing American soldier.
Russia should stop seeing the West as a threat, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Thursday, as he called for a new partnership between Moscow and the transatlantic alliance.
SOUTH AMERICA
Columbia
The governor of a southern state was found dead Tuesday, his throat slit, less than 24 hours after being abducted by leftist rebels in the the first kidnapping of a major Colombian politician since 2002.
Two of Colombia’s biggest rebel groups have announced they intend to unite to fight the country’s security forces.
Venezuela
President Hugo Chavez on Thursday accused the Netherlands of planning “aggression” against Venezuela by allowing U.S. troops access to Dutch islands off the Caribbean coast of the OPEC nation.
WESTERN EUROPE
European Union
European Union leaders on Tuesday sought to deflect criticism that they had fumbled their strategy at the Copenhagen climate summit meeting, just as a feud between the British and the Chinese over whom to blame for the outcome worsened.
Ukraine
Ukraine denied on Friday allegations that a cargo plane loaded with illegal weaponry from North Korea was charted by a Ukrainian company.
Russia’s gas export monopoly Gazprom said on Friday Ukraine was facing difficulties with payments for its gas, news agencies quoted Gazprom’s Chief Executive Alexei Miller as saying.
Serbia
Serbia is to submit a formal application to join the European Union’s 27-nation bloc.
EASTERN EUROPE
Russia
Russia will work on a new generation of atomic weapons to strengthen its nuclear deterrent, President Dmitry Medvedev said on Thursday, just hours after Moscow test-fired one of its most feared missiles.
Lithuania
The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) ran a secret prison in Lithuania where al Qaeda suspects may have been held, a parliamentary probe in the Baltic state found on Tuesday.
MIDDLE EAST
Israel
The Israeli prime minister has asked moderate opposition leader Tzipi Livni to join his government — a move that could boost efforts to restart negotiations with the Palestinians if she accepts or rip apart her rival party if she refuses.
A marathon top-level gathering of the Israeli cabinet to discuss exchanging hundreds of Palestinian prisoners for an Israeli soldier held in the Gaza Strip for three years has ended without any agreement.
Iran
Iranian security forces clashed with supporters of dead dissident cleric Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri in the northwestern city of Zanjan on Thursday, a reformist website said.
Iranian security forces are said to have clashed with protesters demonstrating in the central city of Isfahan.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Tuesday dismissed the West’s year-end deadline for Iran to accept an enrichment fuel deal aimed at calming international fears about its nuclear program.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has dismissed a British newspaper report that said Iran is working on a trigger for a nuclear bomb as a “fabrication,” in an interview with US television released Sunday.
Iran flexed its muscles by occupying an inactive but disputed oil well on its border with Iraq, a sign to Baghdad of what it can do if it is sidelined and to the West of how Tehran might respond to more sanctions.
Iraq
Twenty-seven people were killed and more than 100 wounded in a string of attacks across Iraq on Thursday ahead of Christmas and the Shiite commemoration ceremonies of Ashura.
Yemen
Houthi rebels in northern Yemen say at least 54 people have been killed in an airstrike by Saudi Arabian planes.
EAST ASIA
China
China’s most prominent dissident, Liu Xiaobo, was jailed on Friday for 11 years for campaigning for political freedoms, with the stiff sentence on a subversion charge swiftly condemned by rights groups and Washington.
A Chinese court sentenced five more people to death for their part in bloody ethnic rioting earlier this year in Urumqi, the capital of far western Xinjiang region, a local government spokeswoman said on Thursday.
A new pipeline from Turkmenistan to China contributes substantially to the diversity of the regional energy sector, top Russian officials said in Kazakhstan.
SOUTH ASIA
Pakistan
A top Pakistan Taliban commander told The Associated Press he has sent thousands of fighters to neighboring Afghanistan to counter the influx of new American troops.
Pakistan’s main opposition party said on Monday it would not support any unconstitutional action against President Asif Ali Zardari or his government but warned of protests if Zardari did not give up some powers.
American special forces have conducted multiple clandestine raids into Pakistan’s tribal areas as part of a secret war in the border region where Washington is pressing to expand its drone assassination programme.
India
A key terror suspect who allegedly helped to plan last year’s attacks in Mumbai and plotted to strike Europe was an American secret agent who went rogue, Indian officials believe.
India will not resume talks with Pakistan on normalizing bilateral relations until those responsible for last year’s terrorist attacks in Mumbai are brought to justice, a senior Indian diplomat said on Tuesday.
Afghanistan
Hamid Karzai, the Afghan president, has rejected criticism of his choice of cabinet ministers, some of whom face allegegations of corruption.
Afghan President Hamid Karzai will keep technocrats in key ministries when he unveils his new cabinet, parliamentary officials said on Friday, a move likely to appease Western backers who want a clampdown on corruption.
Africa
Three alleged al-Qaeda members arrived in New York Friday to face charges of trying to set up a drug trafficking ring in Africa, US officials said.
