The GPM Global Forecast is a bi-weekly, members-only article series for 2016. It provides analysis and short-term forecasting on key military, political, and economic events around the globe. 

Voters Head to the Polls in Zambia Presidential Elections

Zambia is holding presidential elections today (August 11) under a new set of rules following a constitutional amendment. The constitution was changed to require presidential running mates after two sitting presidents died in office over an 18-month span, triggering new elections in both cases. The new rules also require that the winner take a majority of the popular vote; if not, run-off elections will be held.

In addition to the president, voters will also choose new mayors, MPs, councilors, and vote for another constitutional amendment concerning the country’s bill of rights.

The presidential contest is expected to be very tight between front-runners Edgar Lungu of the Patriotic Front (PF) and Hakainde Hichilema of the opposition United Party for National Development (UPND). Lungu, the current president, took over for Michael Sata who died in October 2014. He will now be held to account at the ballot box following two years of abysmal economic performance in Zambia. The UPND’s Hichilema on the other hand is a wealthy businessman who has contested several elections in the past. His private sector credentials could help him eke out a victory against a backdrop of Lungu’s perceived failures on the economy.