The GPM Global Forecast is a bi-weekly, members-only article series for 2016. It provides analysis and short-term forecasting on key military, political, and economic events around the globe.

Britain’s In-Out EU Referendum Looms Large on June 23

Years in the making, Britain’s EU referendum will finally happen on June 23, and going by recent polls, it’s increasingly possible that the Leave side will prevail.

According to a poll carried out by the UK’s Independent newspaper, the Leave camp has pulled ahead of Remain by 10 points, with 55% of respondents supporting an exit from the EU to only 45% wanting to remain. Though the polling occured online and was not weighted for turnout, it reflects a momentum swing towards the Leave camp that has been building over the past week.

In another poll released on Monday, the Guardian found that Leave had taken a six-point lead over Remain.