The GPM Global Forecast is a bi-weekly, members-only article series for 2017. It provides analysis and short-term forecasting on key military, political, and economic events around the globe.

The Battle of Mosul Nears Its End

Lt. General Othman al-Ghanimi has told the BBC that he believes Mosul will be completely liberated by the start of Ramadan on May 26. The city has been under Islamic State occupation since 2014; the Iraqi army operation to take it back was first launched back in October 2016.

Around 70% of the city is now in government hands, including the Mosul International Airport. A small swath of land in the northwest remains in ISIS’ hands, where as many as 450,000 civilians are also thought to be trapped.