The reputed Centre for Economic Performance at LSE has long been studying the potential impact of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union, and just this last week it published its latest report. This report focuses on the impacts of Brexit via its disruption of trade flows, and it contains some hard numbers that will make even the most determined Leaver’s blood run cold.

On the ‘benefit’ side of the ledger, the report notes that the UK will send less money to Brussels, and this sum amounts to around 0.31% of national income. This is the optimistic projection, with a 0.09% of national income windfall being the worst-case possibility.

Per-capita income for households is a projection that falls squarely in the ‘drawback’ side of leaving the European Union. The LSE report found that in the best-case, UK families would see their income scaled back by 1.28%, or 850 pounds (the result of a scaling back of trade by 1.37%); in the worst-case scenario, families would see their income drop by 2.61%, or 1,700 pounds (a trade reduction of 2.92%).