The crisis in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has long been a flashpoint for instability in Central Africa. With the recent withdrawal of Burundian troops, Uganda’s reassessment of its military strategy, and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels solidifying their control, the region is experiencing a dynamic shift in power. While a full-scale regional war appears less likely over the short-term, the persistent volatility, territorial ambitions, and increasing likelihood of foreign interventions ensure that the regional outlook will remain precarious.

Burundi’s troop withdrawal shakes Eastern Congo

Burundi’s reported troop withdrawal from eastern Congo marks a significant change in the conflict’s trajectory. These forces had been instrumental in supporting the Congolese military against the M23, particularly along the Congo-Burundi border. Although Burundian officials deny any large-scale retreat, independent diplomatic sources suggest that at least a portion of their forces have been recalled.

This withdrawal has several immediate consequences. Firstly, it reduces the probability of a direct Burundi-Rwanda military confrontation, which had been one of the primary risks for regional escalation. In turn, this weakens the Congolese government’s position, affording the M23 greater operational freedom. The departure of Burundian forces removes a crucial defensive buffer, leaving the Congolese army stretched thin across multiple fronts.