China’s trade data surprised on the downside in November, recording an 8.7% year-on-year drop. The number represents a steep acceleration from the 0.3% contraction in October, and altogether marks the worse performance on the trade front since February 2020, when the national economy was being wracked by the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The numbers are notable in that they reflect a sharp downturn on the demand side, and particularly in some of China’s most important markets. The United States is the case-in-point; exports there dropped by just over a quarter year-on-year in November. Exports to the European Union also dipped by 10%. Unsurprisingly, container rates have fallen in tow, plummeting over 90% from last year – a much faster rate than many had been predicting. In fact, logistics managers are now expecting 2023 to bring bottom-of-the-barrel container prices as newly-created shipping capacity runs aground on collapsing global demand.