Background

Citing the successful accomplishment of its original strategic objectives, the Russian government is removing the “main part” of its military deployment from Syria.

These achievements were laid out in more detail by Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, who reported that the Russian military operation had freed 400 populated areas and retaken over 10,000 square kilometers of territory since the mission began back in September 2015.

The announcement of Russia’s withdrawal comes at a critical time in the Syria civil war, with UN-sponsored peace talks set to resume once again in Geneva. The first attempt at talks collapsed quickly last month amid a Russia-backed government offensive on rebel-held areas surrounding Aleppo.

Analysis

There are many important takeaways from this bombshell announcement.

First off it displays diplomatic tact and strategic flexibility on the part of the Russian government. This of course is a partial withdrawal involving troop levels that were never even made public to begin with. It will likely unfold with an onus on maximizing the diplomatic benefits and maintaining a capacity to re-engage in the Syrian theatre if necessary in the future.

On the surface, the decision might appear meant to coincide with the second attempt at peace talks in Geneva. The opposition delegation at the talks has already welcomed the move. In the most optimistic outlook, it may come to be a gesture of goodwill that leads to compromise on President Assad’s future in Syrian politics. At the very least these are the optics that the Russian government is going for: It stood by its ally in Damascus and now, having achieved all of its military objectives, it’s stepping aside for peace.