FORECAST

It is increasingly likely that past mistakes in NATO strategy will be too much to overcome in the face of Afghanistan’s deteriorating political and military circumstances.

Widespread fraud in recent Afghanistan elections poses a dilemma for Washington and her NATO allies. The pressing question is, given the deteriorating security situation – the Afghanistan Taliban are now thought to have a presence in over 80% of the country – should NATO press for fraud investigations and risk a precarious run-off ballot, or accept the illegitimate rule of an increasingly rogue President Karzai?

On his end, President Karzai seems to be banking on a breach with his NATO allies. Far from taking allegations of fraud seriously, he has been markedly nonchalant over the issue, recently stating in an interview with Le Figaro that, “there was fraud in [the 2004 elections], there is today, there will be tomorrow. Alas, [fraud] is inevitable in a nascent democracy.”

More importantly, President Karzai has been invoking nationalist themes in recent interviews and speeches. His claims that America is trying to manipulate his policies seem to be an attempt to don the mantle of protector of the Afghan nation. It is a telling development because it implies that President Karzai is shifting his focus towards the long-term struggle for national legitimacy vis-à-vis the Taliban-led insurgency, which has decidedly better anti-occupation credentials. Mr. Karzai is well aware of waning Western public support for the NATO campaign in Afghanistan and is thus preparing himself to politically disengage when the time is right. That time may be fast approaching.

In the short-term it can be expected that the rift between NATO and President Karzai, however muted in public, will be widening as the latter postures for a post-NATO Afghanistan.

NATO’s past reliance on the personage of Hamid Karzai to nurture Afghan democracy instead of building democratic institutions compounds the lost influence suffered by Mr. Karzai’s playing of the ‘national card.’

While it is possible that the selective recount ordered by the Electoral Complaints Commission may produce a run-off round, NATO’s lack of political leverage suggests that any rhetorical pressure over election fraud will be somewhat muted. Furthermore, NATO commanders are more interested in fostering stability than inviting more attacks through another round of balloting that is in no way guaranteed to be clean.

President Obama may soon be braving another contentious Congress vote to secure more troops to complement General McChrystal’s strategic review on Afghanistan, one that, though still classified, should be expected to call for greater cultural sensitivity in NATO operating procedures.

This new strategy will likely seek to circumvent President Karzai by appealing directly to the Afghan people, and in doing so hope to deprive the insurgency of recruits from the more moderate strata of Afghan society. To this effect, General McChrystal has already appeared on Afghan TV, apologizing and promising that findings from an investigation into last week’s NATO strike on an oil tanker will be made public.

Expect a slew of new military operating procedures aimed at building trust between NATO troops and local populations. These procedures could very well be fruitful if given time to weaken tribal support for the Afghanistan Taliban, however there might not be enough time left. Opposition and apathy towards the NATO deployment in Afghanistan continues to grow in most member countries. It remains to be seen how long the political will for the Afghanistan campaign will last.

SUMMARY OF EVENTS: September 7 – 14, 2009

WORLD

The dollar touched a fresh low for 2009 against the euro at $1.46 and reached its lowest point in more than a year against several other currencies Wednesday, extending its declines this week.

OPEC members announced Thursday that they will maintain output at existing levels, a decision that has led to a slight increase in oil prices.

NORTH AMERICA

Canada

The commander of U.S. NATO forces in Afghanistan has appointed a Canadian officer to lead a formal investigation into a deadly air strike in northern Afghanistan.

United States

Three men were found guilty in of plotting to blow up at least seven transatlantic airliners using liquid explosives, as questions were raised Tuesday about the U.S. role in the probe.

The U.S. moved on Tuesday to freeze the assets of two North Korean entities believed to be involved in atomic and missile programs, raising pressure on Pyongyang to resume disarmament talks.

On the eve of the eight year anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, an FBI informant who infiltrated alleged terrorist cells in the U.S. told ABC News the FBI missed a chance to stop the al Qaeda plot because they focused more on undercover stings than on the man who would later become known as 9/11 ringleader Mohammed Atta.

SOUTH AMERICA

Venezuela

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez suggested on Monday that the gas-rich Central Asian republic of Turkmenistan join a gas cartel.

Spain’s biggest oil company, Repsol YPF SA, said Friday it had made what could be its largest gas discovery off Venezuela, and one of the largest discoveries in the world, in an exploration partnership with Italy’s Eni.

Venezuela’s leftist President Hugo Chavez said on Friday that his country is buying Russian missiles with a range of 300 kilometers (186 miles) as part of a series of arms deals with Moscow.

EASTERN EUROPE

Georgia

Rising tensions between Russia and Georgia over shipping rights to a breakaway Georgian region have opened a potential new theater for conflict between the countries, a little more than a year after they went to war.

Russia

Moscow on Tuesday denied reports a cargo ship that went missing in the Atlantic for almost a month had been carrying a Russian air-defense system to Iran that was detected by Israel.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez praised Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Wednesday for standing up to the United States, kicking off a visit to Moscow that the Kremlin said will focus on major energy and military agreements.

MIDDLE EAST

Egypt

The current dispute between Syria and Iraq was on the agenda of Wednesday’s meeting of Arab League foreign ministers in the Egyptian capital Cairo.

Iran

The U.N. nuclear watchdog chief said Monday the agency was in “stalemate” with Iran on key issues of trust but that Israeli and French suggestions he was hiding evidence of alleged Iranian atom bomb work were baseless.

Iranian security forces Tuesday cracked down on the opposition’s campaign to highlight torture and abuse of prisoners in the country’s post-election crisis, shutting down offices of pro-reform leaders and arresting five of their aides in a startling series of raids.

Iran defied Western powers on Thursday and ruled out talks on its nuclear program, but still looked set to escape the threat of oil sanctions with Russia saying it would not back such measures at the United Nations.

Israel

Israel on Monday officially approved the construction of 455 new settlements in the occupied West Bank, defying demands by the U.S. and others for a freeze on settlement building.

Russia and Israel were both facing domestic embarrassment Thursday after it emerged that the Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, had taken a secret trip to Moscow to persuade the Russians not to sell anti-aircraft missiles to Iran.

At least two rockets were launched from Lebanon into northern Israel Friday, and Israeli forces returned fire across the border, an Israeli Army spokesman said, speaking anonymously according to regulation.

EAST ASIA

North Korea

North Korea may test a third nuclear bomb late this month or early next should the United Nations and the U.S. strengthen sanctions against the communist nation, a South Korean group of North Korean defectors said Wednesday.

SOUTH ASIA

Afghanistan

The Taliban Monday called on the international community to shed full light on a NATO air raid that killed dozens of people in Afghanistan, as the fall-out from last week’s incident reverberated worldwide.

Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai has accused the U.S. of denouncing his friends and family in an effort to undermine his own position and make him more malleable.

Incumbent Hamid Karzai appears to have won Afghanistan’s presidential elections, with nearly all the votes counted, but a UN-backed commission said Tuesday it has “clear and convincing evidence of fraud”.

Pakistan

One of the highest-ranking Taliban officials in Pakistan has been arrested with four other senior militants in the country’s northwest, officials said Friday.

AFRICA

Uganda

Rioters angry over political and land issues clashed with government forces for a second day Friday, and at least six people were killed in Uganda’s capital and an outlying area.