The swift capture of Aleppo by rebel forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), marks a pivotal turning point in the Syrian civil war. This development not only highlights the fragility of Bashar al-Assad’s regime but also underscores how regional and broader international dynamics are reshaping the conflict. The city, which symbolized the Assad regime’s resurgence after its recapture in 2016, is once again at the center of Syria’s shifting battlefield.
The rebels’ lightning advance reflects deeper geopolitical currents. The Ukraine war has taken a toll on Russia, Assad’s most powerful ally, while Iran and Hezbollah are grappling with the fallout from Israel’s military campaigns. Meanwhile, Turkey has leveraged the situation to expand its influence in northern Syria by utilizing HTS as a proxy force. These overlapping dynamics have given rise to a volatile environment, making Aleppo’s fall a critical turning point.
HTS: From Insurgent Group to Major Player
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has evolved significantly since its origins as an offshoot of al Qaeda in Syria. After splitting from its parent organization and consolidating power in Idlib, HTS has established itself as the dominant force in Syria’s northwestern rebel-held areas. Operating under Turkish protection, the group has transformed Idlib into a de facto Islamist state, with functioning governance structures, military discipline, and strategic autonomy.
This transformation has made HTS a potent actor on Syria’s battlefield. Its leadership has sought to distance itself from the group’s jihadist roots, projecting an image of pragmatism and moderation, at least compared to other Islamist factions. This strategy has helped HTS consolidate power and attract Turkish support, even as it remains classified as a terrorist organization by the United States.
The Aleppo offensive showcases HTS’s growth into a cohesive and capable military force. The group’s fighters demonstrated effective coordination, utilizing modern tactics and weaponry, including drone warfare—a hallmark of contemporary conflicts, starting with the Ukraine war. The rapid pace of the advance, which cut through Assad’s forces in a matter of days, underscores HTS’s enhanced capacity and strategic planning.
Turkey’s Strategic Calculations
Turkey’s role in the Aleppo offensive is complex and multifaceted. While Ankara has not explicitly claimed involvement, its influence is unmistakable. Turkish-backed Sunni militias fought alongside HTS in the offensive, and the timing of the attack—amid regional distractions—suggests coordination with Turkey’s strategic goals.
Turkey’s interests in northern Syria are twofold. First, Ankara seeks to establish a safe zone along its border to manage the ongoing refugee crisis. The flow of millions of Syrians into Turkey over the years has strained its economy and fueled domestic political tensions. By securing areas like Aleppo through proxies such as HTS, Turkey can create conditions for some refugees to return.
Second, Turkey aims to weaken Assad’s grip on northern Syria, expanding its sphere of influence while undermining Kurdish autonomy in the northeast. Allowing HTS to govern captured areas offers Turkey a means to extend control without directly administering the territory, a move that reduces costs and avoids direct confrontation with global powers.
However, Turkey’s support for HTS is not without risks. While Ankara benefits from the group’s military success, its association with HTS complicates Turkey’s relationships with Western allies and may heighten tensions with Israel due to the perception of supporting a group with extremist and anti-Israel tendencies.
Assad’s Weakening Regime
For Assad, the fall of Aleppo is a devastating blow that exposes the deepening fragility of his regime. Once hailed as a leader who had weathered the storm of civil war, Assad now faces mounting challenges, notably economic collapse; fragmentation of state power, where authority is now exercised via third-parties like militias and local power brokers; and a weakening of external allies like Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah.
Assad’s inability to defend Aleppo underscores how dependent his regime remains on external support. Without Russia’s air power or Hezbollah’s ground forces, his military is largely incapable of holding major urban centers, let alone launching counteroffensives. The loss of Aleppo also disrupts Assad’s broader strategy of projecting stability to attract international recognition and economic relief.
The Waning Reach of Russia
Russia’s intervention in 2015 marked a turning point in the Syrian civil war, allowing the Assad regime to recapture key territories and gradually consolidate power. However, Moscow’s focus has shifted dramatically since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The ongoing conflict there has drained Russia’s resources, including its air force, which was instrumental in previous Syrian campaigns. The strain on Russia’s military capabilities, coupled with heavy losses in Ukraine, has left Moscow unable to provide the same level of support to Assad.
In the Aleppo offensive, Russian airstrikes were limited and ineffective, reflecting Moscow’s reduced capacity. With Russia prioritizing its interests in Ukraine and safeguarding its Mediterranean bases in Syria, Assad is increasingly left to fend for himself.
The Iran-Hezbollah Axis Under Pressure
Iran and Hezbollah, once Assad’s most reliable allies, are also grappling with significant challenges:
Iran is facing a relentless Israeli air campaign targeting its proxies in Syria and Lebanon. These strikes have weakened Tehran’s ability to project power and support Assad effectively.
Hezbollah, instrumental in the 2016 battle for Aleppo, is reeling from its confrontation with Israel. The militia has suffered heavy casualties, including the loss of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and lacks the capacity to redeploy significant forces to Syria.
With both Iran and Hezbollah preoccupied and weakened, Assad’s reliance on this alliance is becoming increasingly untenable.
The (Second) Fall of Aleppo: A Geopolitical Gamechanger?
The complete rebel victory in Aleppo has far-reaching consequences. For one, it boosts Turkey’s regional influence. By backing HTS and extending its reach into northern Syria, Ankara is solidifying its position as a key power broker. This development could reshape the balance of power in Syria and complicate efforts to negotiate a lasting peace.
It also represents a strategic opportunity for Israel. The collapse of the Assad-Iran-Hezbollah axis in Aleppo could divert resources and attention away from Israel, allowing it to sustain pressure on Gaza and other fronts as needed.
It goes without saying that the fall of Aleppo is a disaster for the Assad regime, which faces the prospect of losing more territory and even shrinking into a statelet of Damascus and its surrounding areas, further solidifying the fragmentation of Syria.
The fall of Aleppo is not just a military setback for Assad; it signals the beginning of a new phase in the Syrian civil war. The collapse of regime frontlines that were painstakingly secured by Russia and Iran exposes the vulnerabilities of Assad’s government and raises questions about the future of the conflict.
As HTS consolidates its gains and Turkey maneuvers for greater control, the coming months will determine whether Assad can regroup or if his regime will continue to unravel. What’s clear is that the Syrian civil war, far from being frozen, is once again shifting in ways that could have profound consequences for the region.
