Key Takeaways

• External backers are picking sides in the Sudan civil war, risking a prolonging of the bloody conflict with material and diplomatic support.
  
• The war is spilling across Sudan’s borders and impacting fragile states, giving rise to new and cascading regional crises.

That the Sudan civil war is a humanitarian disaster is now beyond question. With over 8.1 million displaced since April 2023 (approximately 17% of the country’s population), the conflict dwarfs the Ukraine and Gaza wars in terms of sheer displacement. But then there’s the appalling conditions that the people of Sudan must face: widespread severe flooding, multiple outbreaks of (often curable) diseases, atrocities committed against civilian populations, and war- and weather-related upheavals in the agricultural heartland that are creating a risk of widespread famine.

Yet in addition to this harrowing domestic outlook, the Sudan civil war is increasingly taking on a regional dimension, one that simultaneously threatens to extend the conflict and destabilize neighboring states, many of which are vulnerable and in the grips of their own economic and political crises.

 

External Powers Take Sides in Sudan Civil War

One of the earliest external players in the war was the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has backed the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in its fight against Sudan’s conventional military, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). While the UAE has not publicly acknowledged any support for the RSF, an April report from the UN found the accusations credible, noting that the RSF’s sudden ability to field sophisticated platforms like drones, howitzers, and MANPADS from July 2023 onward, all of which helped facilitate the RSF’s sweeping gains in the early phase of the conflict. Evidently, Chad has acted as a key conduit for UAE support of the RSF, which has at times been delivered alongside humanitarian aid. Reporting from the New York Times notes the possibility that even the drones being deployed in Sudan by the RSF might in fact be controlled by operators in the UAE.