Summary

Jair Bolsonaro’s 2018 victory was greatly facilitated by a weak field of opponents, many of whom were either tainted by the sprawling Car Wash (Lava Jato) scandal or, like Bolsonaro himself, were relatively unknown entities to the electorate.

The same won’t be said of the next presidential contest in 2022, as the most recognizable entity in modern Brazilian politics – Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (‘Lula’) – is now primed to make a comeback.

A presidential run by Lula would infuse a sense of ideological urgency into the election, with the winner defining the character of the Brazilian state for decades to come. And in light of Bolsonaro’s fiery rhetoric and the judicial warfare waged against his political opponents, it also risks stretching Brazil’s democratic institutions to their limit.