Summary

Tensions are spiking between the Trump administration and the Iranian government, with the chances of a military miscalculation or limited exchange of fire increasing with each passing day.

Earlier this week a US carrier strike group was dispatched to the Persian Gulf. At the time there were concerns of a possible Iranian attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz. Since then it has emerged that there were rumblings of a possible attack by Iran’s Iraq-based proxies against the 5,000 US troops currently stationed in the country.

Then on May 8, President Hassan Rouhani declared that Iran would be suspending its commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal, ending sales of surplus enriched uranium to outside parties. Rouhani further warned that production of highly-enriched uranium would resume within 60 days if other signatories to the deal failed to shield Iran from mounting US pressure.

The Trump administration’s attempt at “maximum pressure” is evidently working, and the Iranian regime is getting desperate. But will the final result be capitulation to Secretary of State Pompeo’s “12 demands” or a military miscalculation that ignites a new wildfire in the Middle East?