The GPM Global Forecast is a bi-weekly, members-only article series for 2016. It provides analysis and short-term forecasting on key military, political, and economic events around the globe.

Tough-Talker Duterte Pulls Ahead in the Philippine Presidential Race

An unlikely front-runner has emerged in the race to become the Philippines next president: Rodrigo Duterte, a mayor who is short on political pedigree and long on the type of bombastic sound-bites that one might expect from US president nominee Donald Trump.

Duterte has made a name for himself in the presidential field by saying the wrong thing at the wrong time, whether in regard to the death squads operating in his city of Davao: “How did I reach that title among the world’s safest cities? Kill them all”; or with regard to women: “I have two wives and two girlfriends.”

A May 2 poll from Pulse Asia put Duterte comfortably in the lead with 33% of voters. With election day less than a week away, it seems increasingly likely that Duterte will pull off a surprising upset thanks to his platform of being tough on crime, corruption, and the Philippine’s adversaries in the region.