The GPM Global Forecast is a bi-weekly, members-only article series for 2016. It provides analysis and short-term forecasting on key military, political, and economic events around the globe.

Turkey Summit Marks a Turning Point in the EU Migrant Crisis

EU and Turkish leaders met in Brussels early this week to hammer out a joint response to the worsening EU migrant crisis. The result of the meetings could mark a turning point in the human wave that has been swamping the continent and dominating the politics of the crisis-weary bloc.

The crisis has shifted from a political matter to a security one as willing recipient nations like Germany are inundated and border-states like Greece struggle to cope with stranded migrants. It’s estimated that 14,000 migrants are trapped on Greece’s northern border alone, unable to continue on into Europe following Macedonia’s border closure.

With no hope of an agreement on internal EU quotas, the situation is getting more chaotic by the day.

There’s now a lot to suggest that the mood has changed in Brussels; the political imperative has shifted from finding a way to welcome more refugees to ensuring they don’t make it past the bloc’s outer borders.

One important step in this direction is NATO’s involvement in monitoring and surveillance activities in the Aegean Sea. It was announced in late February that NATO ships would be coordinating with Greek and Turkish vessels to stem the flow of migrants through the Aegean by way of direct interdictions.