“Greater than 90% of the strikes that we’ve seen [Russia] take to date have not been against [ISIS] or al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorists” – the words of US State Department spokesman John Kirby. Though not exactly an objective assessment, Kirby’s words speak to the reality of Russia’s military involvement in Syria: targeting all enemies of the Assad regime, not just Islamic State (ISIS).

Since becoming involved in Syria, Moscow has brought its battlefield concept of maskirovka to the diplomatic sphere. At its onset, the campaign was to be singularly focused on ISIS targets according to Russian officials. In deed things have turned out to be different, with Russian air power not restricting itself to the vast swathes of northwestern Syria currently under ISIS control. This period has seen various statements appear in Russian media and bureaucracies – that the Russian military is in fact targeting al-Nusra, then it’s just targeting ISIS, etc. But above and beyond these conflicting signals is the operational reality that, as far as the Russian military is concerned, any armed group in Syria that isn’t allied to Damascus is a ‘terrorist organization’ and thus a valid target.

Now that we’re weeks into this deepening Russian mission, we can examine Moscow’s strike pattern and draw a few conclusions about its endgame.