FORECAST
NATO’s campaign to pacify the restive south ahead of this week’s elections is making it so that a win for President Karzai is all but official.
Kabul’s struggle to establish a writ in the southern hinterland should not come as much of a surprise. NATO deployments have gravitated towards the cities, affording the Taliban a free hand in the countryside. Rural areas have thus remained both a springboard for Taliban attacks and a sanctuary to fall back on. Without security, government infrastructure has not been able to take hold, allowing the Taliban to wield the authority that the government lacks.
The NATO campaign in Helmand province, aimed at flushing out Taliban militants ahead of August elections, hopes to finally achieve a stable security situation in the south. The logic follows that if the potential for Taliban intimidation is removed, locals in the south will be willing and able to vote in the election. The ‘Pashtun-belt’ in the south is, after all, electorally crucial for President Karzai – himself a Pashtun – in the race against his primary rival, the half-Tajik Abdullah Abdullah. Such is the electoral importance of the south that even Abdullah Abdullah has ventured into the lion’s den and held several rallies in Kandahar.
There are several factors influencing the poll’s ultimate result. It remains to be seen how many citizens in the south will actually be willing to come out to the polling stations. Local residents are wary of the fleeting nature of the NATO presence. If they go out and vote, they risk reprisals on themselves and family members when the Taliban eventually come back. Whether or not Pashtuns in ‘newly liberated’ areas of the Pashtun-belt come out and vote for President Karzai will be the single biggest determinant as to whether the election requires a run-off or not.
The Karzai camp is keenly aware that the south is crucial for winning the election. In an effort to ensure the large turnout that they require, President Karzai’s half-brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai, has reportedly brokered a series of local election day ceasefire deals with various Taliban groups. Ahmed Wali Karzai is the head of Kandahar’s provincial council and is also suspected to be complicit in the Afghanistan drug trade.
It remains to be seen just how successful these ceasefire deals can be. Disrupting the elections represents an opportunity for the Taliban to score a symbolic victory against Kabul and NATO forces. For many Taliban factions, the opportunity will be too tempting to pass up. Spiking violence should be expected leading up to the elections. Explosions have already started to tear through the south, with two blasts killing over a dozen people last Thursday, and an attack on a NATO convoy killing eight on Tuesday.
As for the election itself, expect a first round victory for President Karzai. Given the widespread election fraud already occurring and Karzai’s warlord support base, the election should go to Karzai in one round whether or not it is deserved. Even with his questionable commitment to human rights and spotty reconstruction record, a decisive win for President Karzai would be welcomed by NATO stakeholders, who are primarily concerned with ensuring a smooth transition of power.
If the election goes to a run-off ballot, the situation becomes much more volatile. A closely contested election risks eliciting accusations of electoral fraud. Since democratic institutions in Afghanistan range from weak to non-existent, these kinds of challenges can give rise to large-scale violence in a country only fifteen years removed from civil war.
SUMMARY OF EVENTS: August 10 – 17, 2009
NORTH AMERICA
Canada
A federal appeals court in Canada ruled Friday that because officials knew about the abuse of a young Canadian detained at Guantanamo Bay, they must ask the United States to repatriate him.
United States
Future climate change may force U.S. military involvement abroad with Washington saying it has to intervene to defend power structures hardest hit by climate change.
The Obama administration is proposing to scale back a long-standing ban on tracking how people use government Internet sites with “cookies” and other technologies, raising alarms among privacy groups.
The House Judiciary Committee Tuesday released thousands of pages of new documents concerning the firing of nine US Attorneys under the Bush Administration — and they heavily implicate the office of onetime Bush adviser Karl Rove.
Militia groups with gripes against the government are regrouping across the country and could grow rapidly, according to an organization that tracks such trends.
Despite the Iraqi government’s announcement earlier this year that it had canceled Blackwater’s operating license, the U.S. State Department continues to allow Blackwater operatives in Iraq to remain armed.
SOUTH AMERICA
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and his allies sought to censure Colombia on Monday over a plan to host U.S. troops that has stoked diplomatic tensions but divided leaders at a regional summit.
WESTERN EUROPE
Britain
The British government has said it is impossible for it to be certain that intelligence received from foreign spy agencies has not been obtained through the torture of suspects.
Britain is not seeking to bring about a “velvet revolution” in Iran, the UK Foreign Office insisted on Tuesday, as it defended the actions of embassy workers on trial in Tehran.
British papers reported on Friday that the terminally ill Libyan agent convicted in the 1988 bombing of Pam Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland has reached a deal with the Scottish government to drop his appeal of the conviction in exchange for being allowed to return to Libya to die with his family.
EASTERN EUROPE
Russia
The United States will be able to hit any target in Russia from space by 2030, the commander of Russia’s air force said on Tuesday, announcing that Moscow will develop a new air defense system to avert the threat.
Moscow has no plans to redeploy its Black Sea Fleet warships from Ukraine to Abkhazia, the Russian defense minister said on Wednesday.
MIDDLE EAST
Iran
One of the defeated reformist candidates in Iran’s disputed presidential election is calling for an investigation into claims that anti-government protesters were raped while in custody.
Iran’s defeated presidential candidate Mehdi Karoubi said on his website Thursday that some of those arrested after the June presidential election were tortured to death, but other inmates defended their treatment.
Israel
As Iran was grappling with the post-election unrest, Israel was reportedly preparing to strike the country’s nuclear facilities, a U.S. diplomatic source says.
Israeli soldiers unlawfully shot and killed 11 Palestinian civilians, including four children, who were in groups waving white flags during the Gaza war, a report prepared by the US-based Human Rights Watch says.
Yemen
Dozens of people have been killed after Yemeni tanks and warplanes pounded Shia fighter strongholds in the country’s north for a third day, officials say.
EAST ASIA
China
Chinese prosecutors have formally arrested four employees of mining giant Rio Tinto on suspicion of violating commercial secrets and bribery, the official Xinhua news agency reported on Wednesday.
China’s foreign minister warned on Wednesday that there was a “looming danger” of an arms race in outer space, as he urged countries not to deploy missile defence systems that could undermine global security.
SOUTH ASIA
Afghanistan
A leading rights group accused President Hamid Karzai on Friday of selling out Afghan women by ratifying a Shi’ite law, which has drawn wide condemnation over its harsh provisions on women, before next week’s election.
Indonesia
A suspect shot dead in Indonesia last weekend was not Islamic militant Noordin Mohammad Top and he is still at large, police said on Wednesday, dashing hopes for a breakthrough in a hunt for the mastermind of a string of attacks.
Indonesian police are investigating an email sent Friday to a local website claiming to be from fugitive Islamic militant Noordin Mohammad Top and threatening to carry out more attacks.
Philippines
Military officials in the Philippines said Wednesday at least 23 soldiers have been killed after government forces launched what they called a “decisive” operation against the Abu Sayyaf in the south of the country.
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka’s capture of a van packed with explosives by Tamil Tiger rebels Wednesday gave a glimpse into the intelligence war the government is waging against the remnant operatives of a group finally defeated on the battlefield in May.
AFRICA
Nigeria
The Movement for the Emancipation for the Niger Delta (MEND) has accused the Nigerian government of deception for demanding ‘false’ confessions from the militants.
Zachary Fillingham is a contributor to Geopoliticalmonitor.com
